SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) Are Probably Still in a Cyclical Bear Market
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX took out yesterday 10-23's cycle low, that appeared to be a short term Wave 2 cycle low.
The five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is very short term bearish for SPX (S & P 500) and most indexes/sectors, because, SPX and the market didn't respond/rally as it normally would with such a bullish broad market lead indicator.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, at an extremely bullish +3.46% versus the XOI today/on 10-24, and, at +2.79% on 10-23, is very bearish very short term, because, the XOI didn't respond/rally as it normally would with such a bullish sector lead indicator.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is definitely in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Looking at SPX's 5 day candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, the crash at the open was very likely a Wave A down type move, the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up intraday upcycle, that failed to fill today's upside gap at 908.11, a bearish sign obviously, because, 908.11 is probably a bearish breakaway gap, is very likely a countertrend Wave B upcycle type move, and, SPX ended the session in Wave A down of a likely Wave C down type move.
I'll be looking to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS/QID/TWM early on Monday, or, more likely, I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG. DUG might have completed an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle shortly before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, at -2.08% versus the XAU today/on 10-24, and, it was a bearish -0.85% on 10-23. GDX/HUI/XAU still probably have substantial downside. I'll be looking to short GDX and/or gold (short GLD or trade DZZ, the double short gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN)) on Monday.
In order for HUI's Secular Bull Market to remain intact, all HUI has to do is to bottom above it's Secular Bear Market cycle low at 35.31 that occurred in November 2000 (HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market began on November 15, 2000 after the 35.31 very long term cycle low). If HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 bottoms at 36 or even 35.32, then HUI will be in a Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle as expected.
The HUI/XAU/GDX (Gold Miners ETF, based on the obscure AMEX Gold Miners Index) Secular Bull Market uptrend line isn't known/defined until the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.
Note that reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a very large very bearish spike on today 10-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. However, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.87% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-24.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
The five day broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is extremely bullish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is very short term bearish for SPX (S & P 500) and most indexes/sectors, because, SPX and the market didn't respond/rally as it normally would with such a bullish broad market lead indicator.
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, at an extremely bullish +3.46% versus the XOI today/on 10-24, and, at +2.79% on 10-23, is very bearish very short term, because, the XOI didn't respond/rally as it normally would with such a bullish sector lead indicator.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is definitely in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
Looking at SPX's 5 day candlestick chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c, the crash at the open was very likely a Wave A down type move, the Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up intraday upcycle, that failed to fill today's upside gap at 908.11, a bearish sign obviously, because, 908.11 is probably a bearish breakaway gap, is very likely a countertrend Wave B upcycle type move, and, SPX ended the session in Wave A down of a likely Wave C down type move.
I'll be looking to day trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra short via SDS/QID/TWM early on Monday, or, more likely, I'll look to day trade the XOI ultra short via DUG. DUG might have completed an intraday Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle shortly before session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dug&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The gold sector NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bearish, at -2.08% versus the XAU today/on 10-24, and, it was a bearish -0.85% on 10-23. GDX/HUI/XAU still probably have substantial downside. I'll be looking to short GDX and/or gold (short GLD or trade DZZ, the double short gold Exchange Traded Note (ETN)) on Monday.
In order for HUI's Secular Bull Market to remain intact, all HUI has to do is to bottom above it's Secular Bear Market cycle low at 35.31 that occurred in November 2000 (HUI (AMEX Gold Bugs Index) Very Long Term Upcycle/Secular Bull Market began on November 15, 2000 after the 35.31 very long term cycle low). If HUI's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 3-17-08 bottoms at 36 or even 35.32, then HUI will be in a Secular Bull Market/Very Long Term Upcycle as expected.
The HUI/XAU/GDX (Gold Miners ETF, based on the obscure AMEX Gold Miners Index) Secular Bull Market uptrend line isn't known/defined until the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low occurs.
Note that reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a very large very bearish spike on today 10-24's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. However, the broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.87% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 10-24.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:54 PM
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