The S & P 500 (SPX) Is In A Countertrend Wave B Type Upcycle
The S & P 500 (SPX) is in a countertrend Wave B type upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. It looked like a Wave B of Wave C cycle high occurred two days ago (bearish spike on black candle), but, it turns out that SPX is in a countertrend Wave B upcycle since 10-28. But, the situation is basically the same as discussed the past few days, the market/most sectors/indexes probably didn't bottom yet.
Sometimes unpredictable rollover upside action occurs, but, all it does is delay the expected weakness, and it creates a better shorting opportunity.
Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), SPX did a two week+ Wave A down (did Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern) to 845.27, that bottomed on 10-28, and, a countertrend Wave B type upcycle is in effect now, that probably didn't peak yet (WMT Lead Indicator was +0.40% versus SPX today/on 10-31), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).
The Russell 2000 (RUT), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, like the gold/silver stock sector, APPEARS to have bottomed. Doubtful. The gold/silver stock sector is less doubtful, but still definitely doubtful.
The lead indicators jive with expected severe weakness in the near future, for most sectors/indexes.
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish (+0.40% versus SPX today/on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, -1.11% versus the XAU today/on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is super bearish (-3.01% versus the XOI today/on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom. I'm looking to trade the XOI ultra short via DUG early next week, once the current countertrend action clearly breaks down and does a sharp Wave A down (of Wave C) type plunge.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) still probably need to do Wave 5 of the gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. The plunge early yesterday 10-30 was probably Wave A down of Wave 4 of Wave 1, not the entire Wave 4 of Wave 1 as previously discussed. Today 10-31's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, at -1.11% versus the XAU on 10-31, points to early weakness on Monday. So, I might look to trade AEM or GDX long on Monday after likely early weakness.
The intraday chart Elliott Wave count above jives with the daily chart Elliott Wave count, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI, since 10-24's short term Wave 1 upcycle began (potential start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, if not, then the current upcycle is a monster short term Wave B), has done an up down up, and, is currently in Wave 4 down of Wave 1 (or a Wave B).
It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur early next week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after 10-30's open. Wave A of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into 10-30's session, Wave B of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 peaked late today in rollover mode, Wave C of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 should bottom early Monday, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak early next week, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity early next week. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity early next week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The five day intraday XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.01% versus the XOI today/on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24) suggests that there might be some early strength on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have bottomed, doubtful), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Sometimes unpredictable rollover upside action occurs, but, all it does is delay the expected weakness, and it creates a better shorting opportunity.
Starting the Elliott Wave count from the cycle high at 1044.31 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx), SPX did a two week+ Wave A down (did Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern) to 845.27, that bottomed on 10-28, and, a countertrend Wave B type upcycle is in effect now, that probably didn't peak yet (WMT Lead Indicator was +0.40% versus SPX today/on 10-31), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
In the next few days to a week, SPX/NDX/RUT and most other indexes/sectors will probably take out their recent lows (10-10-08 for SPX/RUT and the XOI).
The Russell 2000 (RUT), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, like the gold/silver stock sector, APPEARS to have bottomed. Doubtful. The gold/silver stock sector is less doubtful, but still definitely doubtful.
The lead indicators jive with expected severe weakness in the near future, for most sectors/indexes.
The 5 day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is very bearish (+0.40% versus SPX today/on 10-31, -3.07% on 10-30, +0.84% on 10-29, +0.28% on 10-28, -0.19% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The 5 day intraday gold sector NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish (which is very short term bullish, -1.11% versus the XAU today/on 10-31, +2.34% on 10-30, -12.86% on 10-29, +9.90% on 10-28, -0.40% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The 5 day intraday oil and gas sector XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator is super bearish (-3.01% versus the XOI today/on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXOI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=xom. I'm looking to trade the XOI ultra short via DUG early next week, once the current countertrend action clearly breaks down and does a sharp Wave A down (of Wave C) type plunge.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) still probably need to do Wave 5 of the gigantic short term Wave 1 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c. The plunge early yesterday 10-30 was probably Wave A down of Wave 4 of Wave 1, not the entire Wave 4 of Wave 1 as previously discussed. Today 10-31's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, at -1.11% versus the XAU on 10-31, points to early weakness on Monday. So, I might look to trade AEM or GDX long on Monday after likely early weakness.
The intraday chart Elliott Wave count above jives with the daily chart Elliott Wave count, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI, since 10-24's short term Wave 1 upcycle began (potential start of the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, if not, then the current upcycle is a monster short term Wave B), has done an up down up, and, is currently in Wave 4 down of Wave 1 (or a Wave B).
It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur early next week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. Wave 1 up of Wave 1 peaked a third of the way into 10-24's session (150.27 HUI cycle low just after the open was probably a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low). Wave 2 down of Wave 1 bottomed just before 10-27's close. Wave 3 up of Wave 1 peaked just after 10-30's open. Wave A of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 bottomed a third of the way into 10-30's session, Wave B of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 peaked late today in rollover mode, Wave C of Wave 4 down of Wave 1 should bottom early Monday, and, Wave 5 up of Wave 1 looks like it'll peak early next week, so, there should be a good shorting opportunity early next week. Nothing I discuss on this Blog is a recommendation.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March is probably/appears to be over (don't be shocked if it isn't), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau. GDX/HUI/XAU still need to hit a 5% major buy signal however, before Trade the Cycles indicates that they've very likely bottomed. This still could end up being the mother of all headfakes. Also, gold very likely hasn't bottomed.
Gold (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) lags GDX/HUI/XAU, and, will probably bottom at $500ish, maybe $450 or even lower.
There should be a good XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) shorting opportunity early next week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The five day intraday XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator (-3.01% versus the XOI today/on 10-31, -3.26% on 10-30, -3.62% on 10-29, -0.45% on 10-28, +1.46% on 10-27, +3.46% on 10-24) suggests that there might be some early strength on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXOI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=xom.
Reliable gold sector lead indicator Newmont Mining (NEM) shot up a spectacular +22.89% on 10-28-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
It LOOKS LIKE (it obviously makes a LOT of sense to wait for a 5% follow through major buy signal) NEM PROBABLY put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low just before 10-27's close at 21.40, which is a bullish double bottom cycle low with the previous session's cycle low at 21.47, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market (might not have started yet) is likely to be a great one. Wave 3 upcycles tend to be large, relative to Wave 1 upcycles.
SPX (S & P 500) and the XOI (AMEX Oil & Gas) are probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see SPX at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, see the XOI at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi. Since cycle lows keep failing, one has to assume that's the case. SPX put in lower cycle lows in five consecutive sessions recently.
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is probably still in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, as are RUT (Russell 2000, might have bottomed, doubtful), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24rut, and, GDX/HUI/XAU might still be in a Cyclical Bear Market, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
The XOI's (AMEX Oil & Gas, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xoi) 5 day intraday candlestick chart looks similar to SPX's, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exoi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
Please keep in mind that, after an index puts in a potential major cycle low, it has to hit a 5% follow through (after breaking the major downcycle trendline) major buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
3:23 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home