.................I Sold NEM At 42.83 Today
I sold NEM at 42.83 late today versus an entry point at 42.56 on 3-16, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, because, NEM didn't even try to fill today's upside gap at 43.73, so, 43.73 is probably a bearish breakaway gap to the downside.
There's a good chance that NEM will fill it's downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14 in the next few days, and, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of it's monthly upcycle since 3-14-07 should bottom (above the monthly cycle low at 40.53 that occurred on 3-14-07) shortly after filling it's downside gap at 41.44.
Since NEM probably hit an important monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07 and an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) position should do well.
The XAU probably hit a Wave B (began 3-14) cycle high on Thursday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) for the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), and, HUI probably did so yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==).
The XAU is in a very short term Wave C downcycle and HUI is in a very short term Wave A downcycle. The XAU's upside gap from today's open at 139.18 appears to be a bearish breakaway gap to the downside. HUI/XAU are probably in the very bearish Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07. Watch the XAU's downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65.
When HUI does a very short term countertrend Wave B I'll be looking to short GDX and go long some XAU puts.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.06% versus the XAU today, was bearish yesterday at -0.58%, and, was bearish last week at -1.90% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem). The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-27 and was a modestly bearish -0.20% on 3-26.
Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM. But, Thomson I Watch was relatively bullish today for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI) and was bullish for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).
NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 43.73, 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, 139.18, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
There's a good chance that NEM will fill it's downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14 in the next few days, and, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of it's monthly upcycle since 3-14-07 should bottom (above the monthly cycle low at 40.53 that occurred on 3-14-07) shortly after filling it's downside gap at 41.44.
Since NEM probably hit an important monthly cycle low at 40.53 on 3-14-07 and an extremely important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, my NEM April 45 calls (NEMDI) position should do well.
The XAU probably hit a Wave B (began 3-14) cycle high on Thursday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) for the major downcycle since 2-23-07 (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), and, HUI probably did so yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==).
The XAU is in a very short term Wave C downcycle and HUI is in a very short term Wave A downcycle. The XAU's upside gap from today's open at 139.18 appears to be a bearish breakaway gap to the downside. HUI/XAU are probably in the very bearish Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07. Watch the XAU's downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65.
When HUI does a very short term countertrend Wave B I'll be looking to short GDX and go long some XAU puts.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.06% versus the XAU today, was bearish yesterday at -0.58%, and, was bearish last week at -1.90% versus the XAU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem). The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% versus the S & P 500 today/on 3-27 and was a modestly bearish -0.20% on 3-26.
Thomson I Watch was bearish today for NEM, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM. But, Thomson I Watch was relatively bullish today for GFI (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=GFI) and was bullish for WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=WMT).
NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 43.73, 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 139.66, 139.18, and at 147.75 for the XAU. NEM has downside gaps at 41.44 and 42.14, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 133.31 and 129.65. WMT has an upside gap at 49.98 and a downside gap at 46.21. I need to check WMT's historical data further to see if there are more gaps.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:32 PM
