Monthly Upcycle Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle Is In Effect
Since Monday for HUI, NEM, and the XAU ( http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ). The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 4 down now.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.40% vs the XAU right now, but was a bullish +1.23% yesterday, after being a bearish -0.73% on Monday and a very bearish -2.14% on Friday 3-24. The XAU has a downside gap created at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24 that should get filled this week. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.84% to 30.715 on Tuesday 3-28 from 30.160 on Monday 3-27 versus a -2.24% decline in the XAU on 3-28, which is a modest (0.25-0.49%) +0.40% rise in complacency (+1.84% + -2.24% = -0.40%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.40%, therefore complacency rose by +0.40%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 3-29's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +10.59% today to 0.72204 from 0.65287 on Monday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed isn't spiking the punch this week, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.40% vs the XAU right now, but was a bullish +1.23% yesterday, after being a bearish -0.73% on Monday and a very bearish -2.14% on Friday 3-24. The XAU has a downside gap created at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24 that should get filled this week. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.84% to 30.715 on Tuesday 3-28 from 30.160 on Monday 3-27 versus a -2.24% decline in the XAU on 3-28, which is a modest (0.25-0.49%) +0.40% rise in complacency (+1.84% + -2.24% = -0.40%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.40%, therefore complacency rose by +0.40%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 3-29's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +10.59% today to 0.72204 from 0.65287 on Monday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed isn't spiking the punch this week, which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:20 AM
2 Comments:
Garry. NEM Wave 3 peaked Monday and HUI/XAU probably will today in rollover mode. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.23% yesterday versus the XAU, so this strength isn't too surprising.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:01 AM
Garry, cycles are the primary consideration.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:18 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home