Monthly Upcycle Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle Is In Effect
And should peak next Tuesday at about the time of the Fed rate decision at 2:15 pm EST.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 up now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.15% vs the XAU right now. The XAU has a downside gap created at Today's open at 130.03 that could get filled today, but, given the monthly and short term upcycles, it probably won't get filled. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -6.83% to 30.685 on Thursday 3-23 from 32.935 on Wednesday 3-22 versus a +1.48% rise in the XAU on 3-23, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +5.35% rise in complacency (-6.83% + +1.48% = -5.35%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -5.35%, therefore complacency rose by +5.35%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 3-24's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +4.86% today to 0.64172 from 0.61197 on Thursday that portends some strength today because it's a very sharp rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 up now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.15% vs the XAU right now. The XAU has a downside gap created at Today's open at 130.03 that could get filled today, but, given the monthly and short term upcycles, it probably won't get filled. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -6.83% to 30.685 on Thursday 3-23 from 32.935 on Wednesday 3-22 versus a +1.48% rise in the XAU on 3-23, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +5.35% rise in complacency (-6.83% + +1.48% = -5.35%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -5.35%, therefore complacency rose by +5.35%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 3-24's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +4.86% today to 0.64172 from 0.61197 on Thursday that portends some strength today because it's a very sharp rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:02 AM
1 Comments:
Andy, NEM led to the upside early as I said in my first message today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:23 AM
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