....................It's Fed Punch Spiking Day
And the Fed provided a massive $15.25 Billion in repos today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
which should soon firm things up since HUI's Wave 3 short term upcycle began on Tuesday, but NEM and the XAU put in double bottoms today, with NEM taking out Tuesday's cycle low (so far) by 5 cents and the XAU did so by 23 cents, which means that their Wave 3 short term upcycle probably began today.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.10% vs the XAU right now. NEM has an upside gap created at Tuesday's open at 49.22 that should get filled in the next day or two. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.24% to 32.935 on Wednesday 3-22 from 33.690 on Tuesday 3-21 versus a -0.01% decline in the XAU on 3-22, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.25% rise in complacency (-2.24% + -0.01% = -2.25%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.25%, therefore complacency rose by +2.25%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-22's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +7.59% today to 0.61197 from 0.56881 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
which should soon firm things up since HUI's Wave 3 short term upcycle began on Tuesday, but NEM and the XAU put in double bottoms today, with NEM taking out Tuesday's cycle low (so far) by 5 cents and the XAU did so by 23 cents, which means that their Wave 3 short term upcycle probably began today.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.10% vs the XAU right now. NEM has an upside gap created at Tuesday's open at 49.22 that should get filled in the next day or two. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.24% to 32.935 on Wednesday 3-22 from 33.690 on Tuesday 3-21 versus a -0.01% decline in the XAU on 3-22, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.25% rise in complacency (-2.24% + -0.01% = -2.25%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.25%, therefore complacency rose by +2.25%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-22's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose an unusually large (> 6%) +7.59% today to 0.61197 from 0.56881 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:16 AM
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