NEM's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Is Leading To The Downside

The XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at Wednesday's open that will probably be filled today or tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU.The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.40% vs the XAU right now. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.41% to 36.720 on Friday 3-17 from 36.870 on 3-16 versus a +0.19% rise in the XAU on 3-17, which is a slight (up to 0.24%) +0.22% rise in complacency (-0.41% + +0.19% = -0.22%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -0.22%, therefore complacency rose by +0.22%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 3-20's session . The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.47% today to 0.55220 from 0.53890 on Friday that portends some strength today. The Fed spiked the punch today and the fact that it didn't help much jives with a Wave 2 short term downcycle: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/