The Monthly Upcycle's (Since 3-10) Wave 1 Is Peaking
The usual Thursday Fed punch spiking (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE) led to S & P 500 (SPX) and some gold/silver stock strength early on due to index fund buying. HUI's monthly upcycle Wave 1 appears to have peaked yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=) while NEM and the XAU appear to have peaked early today.
The XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at yesterday's open that will probably be filled today or tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06.The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.70% vs the XAU right now after being a bearish -0.88% yesterday. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.98% to 37.230 on Wednesday 3-15 from 37.600 on Tuesday 3-14 versus a +1.73% rise in the XAU on 3-15, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.75% rise in fear (-0.98% + +1.73% = +0.75%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +0.75%, therefore fear rose by +0.75%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 3-16's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.97% today to 0.74862 from 0.74142 on Wednesday, which is a significant rise in fear that portends some strength today. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders on Monday (rare), provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo On Tuesday, a large $9.75 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday, and did their usual Thursday punch spiking today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at yesterday's open that will probably be filled today or tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06.The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.70% vs the XAU right now after being a bearish -0.88% yesterday. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.98% to 37.230 on Wednesday 3-15 from 37.600 on Tuesday 3-14 versus a +1.73% rise in the XAU on 3-15, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.75% rise in fear (-0.98% + +1.73% = +0.75%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +0.75%, therefore fear rose by +0.75%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Thursday 3-16's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.97% today to 0.74862 from 0.74142 on Wednesday, which is a significant rise in fear that portends some strength today. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders on Monday (rare), provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo On Tuesday, a large $9.75 Billion 1 day Repo yesterday, and did their usual Thursday punch spiking today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:24 AM
2 Comments:
Light at the end of a very short tunnel? NEM is holding up very well today. Going to lead wave 2 up on Monday, or is it too early for that?
By
Jeff, at 8:59 AM
Jeff,
NEM is rolling over, it's Wave 1 probably peaked early today, and Wave 2 down should bottom in the next few days. Remember that Thursday is Fed punch spiking day and the XAU has an unfilled downside gap at 130.25ish. They've done it every Thursday the past 10 weeks or so. I'm having fun at CometGold, good group of people. Ciao. Joe
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:54 AM
Post a Comment
<< Home