NEM Is Acting Well Early On Due Partly To Early SPX (S & P 500) Strength
HUI, NEM, and the XAU have all broken their Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle trendlines, but they haven't had 2% follow through yet, so a Wave 5 buy signal hasn't occurred. The very short term upcycle since early Friday should soon break down and HUI, NEM, and the XAU should put in higher cycle lows (than those that occurred on Friday) in the next few days.
The NEM Lead Indicator is neutral vs the XAU right now and it looks like a test of Friday's likely Wave 4 minor intermediate term cycle lows is coming in the next day or two. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.55% to 37.290 on Monday 3-13 from 36.720 on Friday 3-10 versus a +0.75% rise in the XAU on 3-13, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.30% rise in fear (+1.55% + +0.75% = +2.30%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.30%, therefore fear rose by +2.30%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 3-14's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a significant (up to 0.24%) -0.22% today to 0.71994 from 0.72150 on Monday, which is a slight rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders yesterday (rare) and provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo so far today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The NEM Lead Indicator is neutral vs the XAU right now and it looks like a test of Friday's likely Wave 4 minor intermediate term cycle lows is coming in the next day or two. NEM's cycle low on Friday at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility rose +1.55% to 37.290 on Monday 3-13 from 36.720 on Friday 3-10 versus a +0.75% rise in the XAU on 3-13, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.30% rise in fear (+1.55% + +0.75% = +2.30%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +2.30%, therefore fear rose by +2.30%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 3-14's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a significant (up to 0.24%) -0.22% today to 0.71994 from 0.72150 on Monday, which is a slight rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders yesterday (rare) and provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo so far today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:05 AM
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