NEM And The XAU Take Out Yesterday's Cycle Lows

The major upcycle (since 5-16-05) trendlines correctly suggested that the XAU and probably also HUI have further to fall. NEM's cycle low yesterday at 48.13 was in the middle of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, but it hit 47.67 today, while HUI's cycle lows today at 285.46 and yesterday at 282ish were well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, and the XAU's cycle lows today at 124.15 and yesterday at 124.27 were significantly but not far above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. SPX (S & P 500) was briefly firm early today, resulting in gold/silver stock strength, but turned down and entered negative territory, which dragged gold/silver stocks down. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.75% versus the XAU today, so more downside is likely tomorrow.The XAU will probably fill it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 before Wave 4 bottoms. Based on the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.40% to 36.450 on Wednesday 3-8 from 36.595 on Tuesday 3-7 versus a -2.20% decline in the XAU on 3-8, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.60% rise in complacency (-0.40% + -2.20% = -2.60%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.60%, therefore complacency rose by +2.60%) that correctly portended weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-9's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -4.41% today to 0.73567 from 0.76959 on Wednesday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that correctly portended some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch massively today as they always (past two months) do on Thursday, but the cycles are so weak now that it had a very muted effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/