..............................I'm Baaaaaaaaaaaaaack
Just got off Blogger's spam list. Was placed on it by their bot not by a human. The Major Upcycle's Wave 4 may have bottomed yesterday but the major upcycle (since 5-16-05) trendlines suggest that the XAU and especially HUI probably have further to fall. NEM's cycle low yesterday at 48.13 was in the middle of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49 while HUI's cycle low yesterday at 282ish was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265 and the XAU's cycle low yesterday at 124.27 was significantly but not far above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. SPX (S & P 500) was briefly firm early today, resulting in gold/silver stock strength, but has turned down and entered negative territory, which has dragged gold/silver stocks down. The NEM Lead Indicator is a very bearish -1.15% right now versus the XAU, so a test of yesterday's cycle lows may occur today or tomorrow.
The XAU may fill it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 before Wave 4 bottoms. Based on the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.40% to 36.450 on Wednesday 3-8 from 36.595 on Tuesday 3-7 versus a -2.20% decline in the XAU on 3-8, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.60% rise in complacency (-0.40% + -2.20% = -2.60%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by +2.60%, therefore complacency rose by +2.60%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-9's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -4.41% today to 0.73567 from 0.76959 on Wednesday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch massively today as they always (past two months) do on Thursday, but the cycles are so weak now that it has had a very muted effect so far: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The XAU may fill it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 before Wave 4 bottoms. Based on the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI, 47-49 for NEM, and 117-122 for the XAU. XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.40% to 36.450 on Wednesday 3-8 from 36.595 on Tuesday 3-7 versus a -2.20% decline in the XAU on 3-8, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.60% rise in complacency (-0.40% + -2.20% = -2.60%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by +2.60%, therefore complacency rose by +2.60%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-9's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) -4.41% today to 0.73567 from 0.76959 on Wednesday, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today, and the recent collapse in the XAU Put/Call ratio from above 1.30000 on 2-17 (final February value) correctly suggested that a substantial decline would soon occur. The Fed spiked the index fund trader punch massively today as they always (past two months) do on Thursday, but the cycles are so weak now that it has had a very muted effect so far: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:31 AM
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