NEM's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Is Leading To The Downside

The XAU has a downside gap at 130.25 created at Wednesday's open that will probably be filled today or tomorrow. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday, so Wave 5 began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU.The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.30% vs the XAU right now. NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -0.97% to 36.870 on Thursday 3-16 from 37.230 on Wednesday 3-15 versus a -0.76% decline in the XAU on 3-16, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.73% rise in complacency (-0.97% + -0.76% = -1.73%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -1.73%, therefore complacency rose by +1.73%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Friday 3-17's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration expires this week) rose a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.08% today to 0.75672 from 0.74862 yesterday that portends some strength today. The Fed provided no credit to index fund traders on Monday (rare), provided a relatively modest $6.25 Billion 1 day Repo On Tuesday, a large $9.75 Billion 1 day Repo on Wednesday, did their usual Thursday punch spiking on Thursday, and provided an average $7.5 Billion 3 day Repo today: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/