HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Bottomed Yesterday
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 now since early yesterday. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.75% vs the XAU right now. The monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle bottomed yesterday, and, NEM has an upside gap created at yesterday's open at 49.22 that should get filled in the next day or two.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.59% to 33.690 on Tuesday 3-21 from 34.585 on Monday 3-20 versus a -1.92% decline in the XAU on 3-21, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.51% rise in complacency (-2.59% + -1.92% = -4.51%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.51%, therefore complacency rose by +4.51%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 3-21's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (0.50-1.99%) -0.58% today to 0.56881 from 0.57210 on Tuesday that portends some weakness today. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -2.59% to 33.690 on Tuesday 3-21 from 34.585 on Monday 3-20 versus a -1.92% decline in the XAU on 3-21, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +4.51% rise in complacency (-2.59% + -1.92% = -4.51%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -4.51%, therefore complacency rose by +4.51%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 3-21's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a significant (0.50-1.99%) -0.58% today to 0.56881 from 0.57210 on Tuesday that portends some weakness today. The Fed has spiked the punch recently which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:35 AM
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