Looks Like The Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle Bottomed Today
The XAU barely filled it's upside gap created today at 130.66, peaking at 130. 67, and, NEM peaked at 49.15 versus the upside gap created today at 49.22. After underperforming the XAU by -0.60% early on NEM narrowed the gap to -0.21% by session's end, which means that NEM outperformed the XAU for most of the session, which is a positive sign because the NEM Lead Indicator turned positive. The Fed's massive punch spiking in recent days is a major positive also: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
The latest COT data is bullish (I wrote this last weekend): The latest COT data (as of 3-14-06) is bullish since the gold Commercial Traders traded substantially net long and the gold Speculators traded substantially net short, both of which portend strength, but weakness is likely early in the week. The gold Commercial Traders added 7857 (added 2767 the prior week, sold 347 the prior week, added 228, 4848, 4679 the prior three weeks, sold 15,347 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 10,609 (covered 5047 the prior week, added 4974 the prior week, covered 1317 the prior week, added 1765 the prior week, covered 9233, 18,701, 8435 the prior three weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but weakness is likely early this week due to gold stocks' monthly upcycle Wave 2 short term downcycle. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long position) 23,450 (sold 3373 the prior week, added 4662 the prior week, sold 5614, 10,272, 5910 the prior three weeks, added 44 the prior week, sold 6157 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and added 695 (added 3328 the prior week, covered 2621, 2300, 3511 the prior three weeks, added 5621, 1047, 1783, 3743, 9445, 5824 the prior six weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long liquidation is a short term non contrarian indication. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).
See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The latest COT data is bullish (I wrote this last weekend): The latest COT data (as of 3-14-06) is bullish since the gold Commercial Traders traded substantially net long and the gold Speculators traded substantially net short, both of which portend strength, but weakness is likely early in the week. The gold Commercial Traders added 7857 (added 2767 the prior week, sold 347 the prior week, added 228, 4848, 4679 the prior three weeks, sold 15,347 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 10,609 (covered 5047 the prior week, added 4974 the prior week, covered 1317 the prior week, added 1765 the prior week, covered 9233, 18,701, 8435 the prior three weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but weakness is likely early this week due to gold stocks' monthly upcycle Wave 2 short term downcycle. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long position) 23,450 (sold 3373 the prior week, added 4662 the prior week, sold 5614, 10,272, 5910 the prior three weeks, added 44 the prior week, sold 6157 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and added 695 (added 3328 the prior week, covered 2621, 2300, 3511 the prior three weeks, added 5621, 1047, 1783, 3743, 9445, 5824 the prior six weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long liquidation is a short term non contrarian indication. The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below).
See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:20 PM
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