HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle May Bottom Today
The XAU filled it's downside gap at 130.25 from 3-15 today. The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.60% vs the XAU right now. It looks like the monthly upcycle's (since 3-10-06) Wave 2 Short Term Downcycle may bottom today, and, NEM and the XAU have upside gaps created at today's open at 49.22 and 130.66 that should get filled in the next day or two. The NEM Lead Indicator should turn bullish today if Wave 2 is bottoming. See charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -5.81% to 34.585 on Monday 3-20 from 36.720 on Friday 3-17 versus a -0.82% decline in the XAU on 3-20, which is an unusually large (> 6%) +6.63% rise in complacency (-5.81% + -0.82% = -6.63%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -6.63%, therefore complacency rose by +6.63%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 3-21's session . The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +3.60% today to 0.57210 from 0.55220 on Monday that portends some strength today. The Fed spiked the punch again today which is a major positive once the Wave 2 short term downcycle bottoms: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html . XAU Implied Volatility fell -5.81% to 34.585 on Monday 3-20 from 36.720 on Friday 3-17 versus a -0.82% decline in the XAU on 3-20, which is an unusually large (> 6%) +6.63% rise in complacency (-5.81% + -0.82% = -6.63%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -6.63%, therefore complacency rose by +6.63%) that portends strength/an uptrend during part of Tuesday 3-21's session . The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a very sharp (3-6%) +3.60% today to 0.57210 from 0.55220 on Monday that portends some strength today. The Fed spiked the punch again today which is a major positive once the Wave 2 short term downcycle bottoms: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:46 AM
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