Monthly Upcycle Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle Is In Effect
Began 3-21 for HUI and on 3-23 for NEM/XAU, which put in double bottom cycle lows with 3-21's cycle lows. The Monthly Upcycle Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle may have peaked early today or is in the process of doing so. Since NEM is outperforming the XAU by about +0.40% right now, that suggests that HUI and the XAU may not have hit Wave 3 Short Term Cycle Highs yet.
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 up now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU right now but was a very bearish -2.14% on Friday 3-24. The XAU has a downside gap created at today's open at 133.40 that could get filled this week.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -5.47% to 29.005 on Friday 3-24 from 30.685 on 3-23 versus a +2.59% rise in the XAU on 3-24, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.88% rise in complacency (-5.47% + +2.59% = -2.88%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.88%, therefore complacency rose by +2.88%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 3-27's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.72% today to 0.65917 from 0.64172 on Friday that portends some strength today because it's a sharp rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently (but not today) which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle, which is in Wave 3 up now. The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU right now but was a very bearish -2.14% on Friday 3-24. The XAU has a downside gap created at today's open at 133.40 that could get filled this week.
NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .
XAU Implied Volatility fell -5.47% to 29.005 on Friday 3-24 from 30.685 on 3-23 versus a +2.59% rise in the XAU on 3-24, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.88% rise in complacency (-5.47% + +2.59% = -2.88%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.88%, therefore complacency rose by +2.88%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 3-27's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) rose a sharp (2-2.99%) +2.72% today to 0.65917 from 0.64172 on Friday that portends some strength today because it's a sharp rise in fear. The Fed has spiked the punch recently (but not today) which is a major positive since the Wave 3 short term upcycle is in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:07 AM
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