Trade the Cycles

Saturday, March 25, 2006

..............................New Charts Uploaded

The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) began on 3-10-06 shortly after the XAU filled it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22. HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in a monthly upcycle (since 3-10-06) Wave 3 short term upcycle since Tuesday for HUI and since Thursday for NEM/XAU (put in double bottoms with Tuesday's cycle lows). The XAU could fill it's downside gap at 130.03 from Friday's open on Monday or Tuesday given Friday's very bearish NEM Lead Indicator at -2.14% versus the XAU. See 5 day HUI chart (XAU's yahoo chart is messed up by a weird spike): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 10:40 AM

7 Comments:

  • Joe,

    In light of the NEM action, I'm a bit confused on this one. Since the cycles have been getting longer, and this is supposed to be the wave 5 up, it seemes like the subwaves 1 and 3 up were pretty short. Could this wave 5 up itself have a couple or several of the old monthly cycles within it?

    Thanks,
    Jeff

    By Blogger Jeff, at 9:33 AM  

  • Jeff,

    Monthly upcycles last about a month while a total monthly cycle from cycle low to cycle low may last 6-8+ weeks. So, timewise I think the short term cycles/monthly Elliot Waves make sense.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 3:19 PM  

  • If I'm getting this right, the wave 5 up of the wave 5 up should be very explosive to beat out the wave 3 highs, much less get close to the HUI 400 mark. Do you think I am interpreting this right, or missing a point somewhere? I'm not getting those parabolic trendlines on this wave 5 yet that I was hoping for, and I usually try to draw mine before seeing your Sunday updates, to see if they end up similar.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 4:33 PM  

  • Jeff,

    The major upcycle's Wave 5 is a 3-6 month minor intermediate term upcycle comprised of a few monthly cycles and should peak in the 400-450+ range for HUI. The monthly upcycle is in a Wave 3 short term upcycle. Don't confuse the short term Waves in the monthly upcycle with the longer ones in the major upcycle. Ciao

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:59 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 6:10 AM  

  • Yes, I had to step back to my time periods and stop trying to fit the cycles inside each other. About 2 in the morning I had the "eureka" moment as to what I was doing wrong.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 6:13 AM  

  • OK, good job.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:38 AM  

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