Trade the Cycles

Thursday, March 30, 2006

................More Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle

Today was a surprise and it looks like the Wave 3 Short Term Upcycle is hitting a cycle high today. I sold on Monday and did very well, so I have no complaints. Today is Fed punch spiking day which added to strength.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= The major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 2% follow through minor intermediate term cycle buy signal occurred on Tuesday 3-14, so the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle began on 3-10-06 for HUI/NEM/XAU as did a shorter monthly upcycle. The NEM Lead Indicator is a modestly bullish +0.20% vs the XAU right now, but was a bearish -0.56% yesterday. The XAU has downside gaps created at today's open at 138.84, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has one at 51.49 from today's open, at 49.46 from 3-27 and one at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled soon.

NEM's cycle low on Friday 3-10 at 46.60 was less than 1% below my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 47-49, while HUI's cycle low on Friday at 278.47 was well above my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 255-265, but the XAU's cycle low on Friday at 121.76 was near the top of my Wave 4 cycle low target range of 117-122. HUI's major upcycle (since 5-16-05) Wave 5, that should also be a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high for the first of three Cyclical Bull Markets (3 Elliot Wave upcycles and 2 downcycles/Cyclical Bear Markets) in this Secular gold/silver stock Bull Market that began in late 2000, should peak in the 400-450+ range. See latest charts: http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html .

XAU Implied Volatility rose +3.34% to 31.740 on Wednesday 3-29 from 30.715 on Tuesday 3-28 versus a +3.48% rise in the XAU on 3-29, which is an unusually large (> 6%) +6.82% rise in fear (+3.34% + +3.48% = +6.82%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +6.82%, therefore fear rose by +6.82%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 3-29's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (April Expiration) fell a very sharp (3-6%) +4.29% today to 0.69105 from 0.72204 on Wednesday that portends some weakness today because it's a very sharp rise in complacency. The Fed didn't spike the punch this week until today (Thursday is punch spiking day), which is a major negative short term, and, a Wave 4 short term downcycle is or should soon be in effect: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE ...................... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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