S & P 500 (SPX) Weakness Resulting In Gold/Silver Stock Weakness

Just as SPX strength yesterday led to strength. The major cycles are vastly different for SPX vs HUI/NEM/XAU with SPX being in a secular Bear since March 2000 while HUI/NEM/XAU have been in a secular Bull since late 2000. But, near term SPX has a major impact on gold/silver stocks because it drives index fund trading. The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish on Monday at -2.26% vs the XAU, remained so on Tuesday at -1.69% and was also very bearish at -1.50% vs the XAU yesterday, so a substantial 10-15%+ decline is likely in the next few days. Right now NEM is outperforming the XAU by a bullish +0.75%, so major weakness won't set in until NEM starts to plunge. An ABC Wave 4 minor intermediate term downcycle is occurring since 1-31-06. The cycle lows two weeks ago were Wave A short term cycle lows. They occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines to be likely Wave 4 cycle lows. Both NEM and the XAU took out their cycle lows from two weeks ago on Tuesday. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 133.35 from 3-1, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI (was 240-250), 47-49 for NEM (was 45-47), and 117-122 for the XAU (was 112-117). XAU Implied Volatility fell less in % terms than the (to 34.580 on 3-1 from 34.805 on 2-28) XAU rose yesterday (+1.59%) which was a significant rise in fear that correctly portended some very brief early strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) rose a very sharp 5.55% today to 0.84715 from 0.80257 yesterday, which is a very sharp rise in fear that correctly portended some early strength today. Also, the Fed wasn't spiking the index fund trader punch this week until today's usual Thursday punch spiking = $18.25 Billion in Repos (happened every Thursday the past two months), with $6.75 Billion in Repos yesterday, only $2 Billion in Repos on Monday, and $3.5 Billion on Tuesday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE http://www.JoeFRocks.com/