...........The NEM Lead Indicator Remains Bearish

The NEM Lead Indicator turned very bearish on Monday at -2.26% vs the XAU, remained so yesterday at -1.69% and is -0.50% vs the XAU right now. Not surprisingly the expected ABC correction scenario is occurring and the cycle lows two weeks ago were in fact Wave A short term cycle lows not the start of the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle. They occurred too far above the major upcycle trendlines to be likely Wave 4 cycle lows. Both NEM and the XAU took out their cycle lows from two weeks ago yesterday. The XAU failed again early today to fill it's upside gap from yesterday's open at 135.67. NEM has downside gaps to fill at 52.92 from today's open, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps to fill at 133.35 from today's open, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22. Shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 48.75 from 12-7 and the XAU fills it's downside gap at 122.49 from 12-22 Wave 4 should bottom. Based on that and the latest major upcycle trendlines (see latest 1 year charts, http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html ) my Wave 4 cycle low target ranges are 255-265 for HUI (was 240-250), 47-49 for NEM (was 45-47), and 117-122 for the XAU (was 112-117). XAU Implied Volatility fell yesterday despite (to 34.805 on 2-28 from 35.925 on 2-27) the XAU falling (-1.71%) which was a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (March Expiration) fell an unusually large > 6% today to 0.80257 from 1.03355 yesterday, which is an unusually large rise in complacency that correctly portended some early strength today. Also, the Fed isn't spiking the index fund trader punch this week, with $6.75 Billion in Repos so far today, only $2 Billion in Repos on Monday, and $3.5 Billion on Tuesday: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE http://www.JoeFRocks.com/