........................Some "Brief" Notes

I'm going into holiday mode, but, here are some brief notes:

DNDN (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn) needs to decisively break it's short term Wave 2 downtrend (hit a Wave 3 buy signal) since the short term Wave 1 spike cycle high occurred at yesterday's open at 7.65, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. When/if it does hit a Wave 3 buy signal I'll look to buy a significant intraday Wave 2 type pullback.

CBAK's short term Wave 4 probably bottomed at 3.72 today, since CBAK rallied substantially on strong volume to 3.96 near session's end and hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CBAK&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. I'll look to buy weakness early on Monday. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cbak.

GNBT will probably take out Wednesday's cycle low at 1.73 before Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 bottoms, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'm waiting for GNBT to either fill it's upside gap at 1.84 or take out Wednesday's cycle low at 1.73, that may not be the Wave 2 of (a short term) Wave 3 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. If GNBT takes out 1.73 but not by much I'll probably wait for it to fill it's upside gap at 1.84 before looking to buy a pullback (I'll wait for strength/a very short term buy signal in either case, then look to buy weakness). The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 1.52, so, 1.52 must hold for GNBT to remain in a healthy monthly upcycle.

Please see Thursday's post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/06/dndn-probably-put-in-monthly-cycle-low.html for rockets detailed analysis/info.

ACI probably still needs to do/complete Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci.

That's it for now. Ciao. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

DNDN Filled It's Downside Gap At 7.17 From Yesterday's Open

DNDN filled it's downside gap at 7.17 from yesterday's open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. A short term Wave 1 cycle high occurred at 7.65 yesterday versus a monthly cycle low at 6.30 the day before, and, a monthly cycle buy signal occurred yesterday, because a strong Short Term Wave 1 upcycle occurred.

I'm waiting for DNDN to do a significant intraday Wave 1 type upcycle (once the short term Wave 2 bottoms today/Monday), then I'll look to go long during an intraday Wave 2 type downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It's usually a good idea to wait for the expected behavior, then buy a countertrend pullback (or rally in the case of looking to sell short). It's a way to confirm that your Elliott Wave count is correct and possibly also to confirm that your assessment of a stock's cycles is correct. If you can't gauge what a stock will do you shouldn't trade it obviously.

I'm waiting for GNBT to either fill it's upside gap at 1.84 or take out Wednesday's cycle low at 1.73, that may not be the Wave 2 of (a short term) Wave 3 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. If GNBT takes out 1.73 but not by much I'll probably wait for it to fill it's upside gap at 1.84 before looking to buy a pullback (may wait for a very short term buy signal).

Please see the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/06/dndn-probably-put-in-monthly-cycle-low.html for rockets detailed analysis/info.

Likely new rockets are CBAK (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cbak) and USEY (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?usey). I may buy CBAK in the current short term Wave 4 down, and, with USEY I'm waiting to see if it fills it's upside gap a bit above 2, then I may buy a pullback.

I'm looking to go long non rocket ACI today/Monday in a short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?aci. ACI put in a monthly cycle low at 32.94 on Wednesday and hit a monthly cycle buy signal yesterday. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday's candle.

I'm looking (? read on) to go long FCEL on weakness today/Monday in a short term Wave 4 downcycle (or Wave 2 of a big Wave 3), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's intermediate term upcycle since mid May appears to be rolling over (peaks are flattening out), so, I may not trade FCEL.

I'm looking to go long WMT and the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO once WMT hits a short term Wave 5 buy signal. WMT's short term Wave 4 appears to have bottomed at 47.69, but, WMT still needs to hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, there's a bearish large spike on today's candle.

Concerning gold, it's primary Secular Bull Market very long term upcycle trendline since April 2001 is at $470-475ish, so, ignor the dingbat gold writers who don't even understand basic TA. From May 2004 until May 2006 gold nearly doubled, experiencing a final/third Wave 5 long term upcycle of the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market, and, is now in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that should bottom in the $475-500 range.

In the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold one can see that Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market bottomed at $542. Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market recently peaked at $698 in April 2007, so, Elliott Wave confirms that the $475-500 target range is reasonable for gold's final Wave C cycle low of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market.

Concerning some Cartel manipulating gold and suppressing it, forgetaboutit! Gold did 30-35% PER YEAR on average in it's five+ year Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, rising from $254 to $730ish. Also, because gold is securitized now as GLD (and IAU and probably other ETFs), it's greatly affected by program trading, which makes major or even minor manipulation of gold IMPOSSIBLE, even though GLD isn't in the S & P 500.

Program trading accounts for about 70% (that's right) of the dollar volume on the NYSE, because, baskets of ALL S & P 500 stocks are bought and sold when program trading occurs. This is why when the S & P 500 gets whacked gold always or almost always gets whacked and vice versa when strength occurs. How much strength or weakness occurs is obviously also related in large part to gold's cycles at the time.

If gold was being manipulated by some evil Cartel who would want to invest in it, if it was subject to the whims of an evil Cartel? Who wants to be in a suppressed market??? It just shows what nitwits many of the gold writers truly are. They don't understand basic TA (primary trendline at $470-475ish) or how the market works (program trading).

Ciao!

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

DNDN Probably Put In A Monthly Cycle Low At 6.30 Yesterday

DNDN managed to put in a higher cycle high at today's open (at 7.65) than yesterday's cycle high (7.50), which is a monthly cycle buy signal, because DNDN was able to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle. So, DNDN probably put in a monthly cycle low at 6.30 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn, and, rose dramatically on very strong volume, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Note that volume exploded in tandem with price, which is a great sign.

DNDN may do a Wave C type sharp decline early tomorrow and fill today's downside gap created at the open at 7.17 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), at which point I will look to buy, possibly for a day trade.

GNBT failed to fill yesterday's upside gap at 1.84, so, yesterday's cycle low at 1.73 may not be the Wave 2 of (a short term) Wave 3 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

My favorite rocket now is GNBT (though TMTA and DNDN also look great), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early Monday, with a huge spike to 2.05, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.

GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday 6-22, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday 6-21's Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.

GNBT's a new biotech rocket with more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

FCEL put in a (long) short term Wave 1 cycle high at 8.05 after hitting a monthly cycle low at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The cycle low at 7.57 was Wave A of Wave 2 down not the final Wave 2 cycle low, and, Tuesday's cycle low at 7.55 (bullish double bottom with 7.57) was the final Wave C of (short term) Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll be looking to buy FCEL on weakness tomorrow.

TMTA ran away from me recently and is in Wave 3 or 4 of a Wave 5 short term upcycle. I may wait for it to do a monthly downcycle before trading it or I may day trade it.

TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday 6-22, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday 6-22. Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked Monday, note the large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta.

A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, maybe TMTA (might day trade this), maybe DNDN (might day trade this or hold overnight), and, possibly also FCEL. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal (decisively breaks short term Wave 4 downtrend line since early June), so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.

WMT may still fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the Short Term Wave 4 (since early June), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low was 48.17 versus yesterday's cycle low at 47.76 versus Tuesday's at 47.75 and Monday's at 47.69, that appears to be the short term Wave 4 cycle low. Even if 47.60 doesn't get filled WMT's short term Wave 4 will have bottomed very near 47.60 at 47.69, so, tracking gaps still was very useful.

With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60 OR it may have bottomed Monday at 47.69, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range (if 47.69 isn't the cycle low), especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.48% versus SPX today after being bullish the prior four sessions. It was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, a very bullish +0.63% versus the S & P 500 Tuesday, it was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 Monday, and, was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday 6-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.03% versus the XAU today, was a very bearish -1.27% versus the XAU yesterday, was a very bullish +1.07% versus the XAU Tuesday, and, was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

GNBT Filled It's Downside Gap At 1.80 As Expected Today

GNBT filled it's downside gap at 1.80 as expected today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt, and, it put in a nice bullish likely Wave 2 of (a short term) Wave 3 spike cycle low at 1.73. I didn't go long today because there's an unfilled upside gap at 1.84 from today's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Until proven otherwise it's a bearish breakaway gap. If 1.84 gets filled tomorrow (likely) that'll be a very short term buy signal.

My favorite rocket now by far is GNBT (though TMTA also looks great), which filled it's downside gap at 1.80 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early Monday, with a huge spike to 2.05, , see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.

GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'm looking to buy GNBT now that a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3) is probably completed. GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.

GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

DNDN probably put in a monthly cycle low at 6.30 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn, and, rose dramatically to a session cycle high at 7.50 on very strong volume, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Note that volume exploded in tandem with price late in the session, which is a great sign.

DNDN may do a Wave C type sharp decline early tomorrow, at which point I may buy some, possibly for a day trade. Note that DNDN will have to trend higher for another session or more (do a short term Wave 1 upcycle) before a monthly cycle buy signal occurs, indicating that 6.30 is very likely to be a monthly cycle low.

TMTA ran away from me today and didn't fall into the 0.47-0.50 range. I may wait for it to do a monthly downcycle before trading it or I may day trade it. ("It looks like Wave 2 of Wave 5 will bottom in the 0.47-0.50 range, at which point I'll look to buy." from yesterday)

TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked Monday, note the large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta.

A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

FCEL put in a (long) short term Wave 1 cycle high at 8.05 after hitting a monthly cycle low at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The cycle low at 7.57 was Wave A of Wave 2 down not the final Wave 2 cycle low, and, yesterday's cycle low at 7.55 (bullish double bottom with 7.57) was the final Wave C of (short term) Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll be looking to buy FCEL on weakness tomorrow.

Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, maybe TMTA (might day trade this), maybe DNDN (might day trade this), and, possibly also FCEL. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal (decisively breaks short term Wave 4 downtrend line since early June), so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.

WMT may still fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the Short Term Wave 4 (since early June) as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low was 47.76 versus yesterday's at 47.75 and Monday's at 47.69, that appears to be the short term Wave 4 cycle low. Even if 47.60 doesn't get filled WMT's short term Wave 4 will have bottomed very near 47.60 at 47.69, so, tracking gaps still was very useful.

With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60 OR it may have bottomed Monday at 47.69, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range (if 47.69 isn't the cycle low), especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.

The WMT Lead Indicator has turned positive the past four sessions, which is a sign that WMT is bottoming. It was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the S & P 500 today, a very bullish +0.63% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, it was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 Monday, and, was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.27% versus the XAU today, was a very bullish +1.07% versus the XAU yesterday, and, was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

WMT May Still Fill It's Downside Gap At 47.60 In The Short Term Wave 4

WMT may still fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the Short Term Wave 4 (since early June) as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low was 47.75 versus yesterday's at 47.69. The bearish large spike on today's candle is a sign that 47.60 may get filled tomorrow. Even if 47.60 doesn't get filled WMT's short term Wave 4 will have bottomed very near 47.60 at 47.69, so, tracking gaps still was very useful.

With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60 OR it may have bottomed yesterday at 47.69, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.

The WMT Lead Indicator has turned positive the past three sessions, which is a sign that WMT is bottoming. It was a very bullish +0.63% versus the S & P 500 today, it was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, and, was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.07% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Because volume was low today for ACAD and MDII and should dry up even more the next week+ due to the July 4th holiday (and the Fed meeting tomorrow and Thursday), I won't be talking about them. AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN will probably be mentioned only if it looks like they hit monthly cycle lows AND hit monthly cycle buy signals (strong short term Wave 1 upcycle for a few days). AVNR may have hit a monthly cycle low today at 2.40 versus the prior monthly cycle low at 2.36. AVNR should put in a higher monthly cycle low in order to remain a bullish rocket (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr).

Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, TMTA, and, possibly also FCEL. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal, so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.

My favorite rocket now by far is GNBT (though TMTA also looks great), which is probably in the process of filling it's downside gap at 1.80 created at yesterday's open, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early yesterday, with a huge spike to 2.05, , see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 should bottom shortly after 1.80 gets filled, which is when I'll look to buy. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.

GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3) is completed. GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.

GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked yesterday, note the large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta. It looks like Wave 2 of Wave 5 will bottom in the 0.47-0.50 range, at which point I'll look to buy.

A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

FCEL put in a (long) short term Wave 1 cycle high at 8.05 after hitting a monthly cycle low at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The cycle low at 7.57 was Wave A of Wave 2 down not the final Wave 2 cycle low, so, tomorrow FCEL will probably put in a short term Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=,

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

It Looks Like WMT Will Fill 47.60 In The Short Term Wave 4 As Expected

It looks like WMT will fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the short term Wave 4 as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low as 47.69.

With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.

The WMT Lead Indicator has turned positive the past two sessions, which is a sign that WMT is bottoming. It was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 today and was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, TMTA, and, possibly also MDII, FCEL, and ACAD. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't, unlikely) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal, so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.

DNDN filled it's downside gap at 6.74 today, with a session cycle low at 6.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn, and, DNDN's monthly downcycle should bottom soon. DNDN needs to establish a monthly cycle low/hit a monthly cycle buy signal before I look to go long. DNDN will need to do a strong Wave 1 short term upcycle for a few days in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term or monthly cycle buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well.

GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early today with a huge spike to 2.05, , see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. It appears that today's downside gap at 1.80 from the open will probably get filled tomorrow or Wednesday. Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3 should bottom shortly after 1.80 gets filled, and, I'll look to buy GNBT after that. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.

GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3) is completed.

GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Looking at the 1 day chart it looks like TMTA will pull back early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TMTA&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, at which point I'll look to buy.

A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4 (as it was on Friday) and will probably take out Wednesday's likely Wave A of Wave 4 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.

MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move last Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked Wednesday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at last Tuesday's open from 1.23.

FCEL did not put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high today than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, one has to turn cautious on FCEL now IF FCEL takes out the Wave 2 of (the short term) Wave 3 cycle low from late Thursday. If late Thursday's cycle low holds then FCEL remains in a bullish/healthy monthly upcycle. See next paragraph. Today's bearish large spike, plus the bearish dark candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel, which indicates a close below the open, are more reasons to be cautious.

I think what's going on is that Wave 4 (since early Friday) of the short term Wave 3 probably bottomed late today and did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early Friday. As long as the Wave 2 of (the short term) Wave 3 cycle low from late Thursday holds, then FCEL's Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle since Wave 2 bottomed at 7.57 early on Thursday remains intact, and, FCEL remains in a bullish/healthy monthly upcycle.

FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 7.57 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND had strong price/volume action, so, a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurred.

ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday 6-11's open as expected on Wednesday 6-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. ACAD's short term Wave 3 peaked at 15.42 early on Wednesday (monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5). ACAD's short term Wave 4 downcycle has done Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern since early Wednesday's Wave 3 cycle high at 15.42, which means that Wave 4 down may have bottomed late today/Monday. I'll be looking to buy this tomorrow.

AVNR's monthly downcycle since peaking at 4.00 continues to plumb new lows, with a cycle low at 2.91 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The previous monthly cycle low was at 2.36, so, this action isn't too surprising. AVNR appears to be in the final Wave C of Wave C of the monthly downcycle.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

.......................Rockets Thoughts

The rockets that look great/good and timely now are GNBT, TMTA, ACAD, FCEL, and MDII. GNBT, MDII, and TMTA will probably have sharp pullbacks on Monday, at which point I'll look to buy, probably after an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurs.

FCEL should put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high early on Monday than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Then I'll look to/might buy FCEL on a pullback IF the expected early strength occurs.

ACAD appears to have put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low on Friday. If so it should pop on Monday (show good price/volume action and hit a Wave 5 buy signal), and, I may buy some, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad.

With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47, so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.

GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal yesterday/Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 appears to have peaked at 1.82 (bearish double top) on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3).

GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Looking at the 1 day chart it looks like TMTA will pull back early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TMTA&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.

A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is probably in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy this Monday.

MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move on Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked Wednesday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at Tuesday's open from 1.23. MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4 and will probably take out Wednesday's likely Wave A of Wave 4 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.

Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.

FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down probably bottomed at 7.57 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND had strong price/volume action, so, a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurred.

FCEL should put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high early on Monday than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The very short term Wave 1 upcycle (since hitting 7.57 early on Thursday) of the short term Wave 3 should peak early on Monday. If FCEL fails to put in a higher cycle high early on Monday than Friday's cycle high that's obviously a bearish sign. FCEL should put in a healthy Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up very short term upcycle is the point, which will be Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3.

ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday 6-11's open as expected on Wednesday 6-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. ACAD's short term Wave 3 peaked at 15.42 (monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5). Wave 4 down may have bottomed on Friday. I'll be looking to buy this week.

Keep an eye on DNDN. DNDN needs to establish a monthly cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. The downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31 will very likely get filled, and, DNDN's monthly downcycle should bottom shortly thereafter. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term or monthly cycle buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

...................I Didn't Get My Shorts On

After putting in a bullish large inverse spike early in the session WMT did an Elliott Wave up down up, then Wave 4 down took out Wave 2,
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=WMT&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, so, WMT failed to do a healthy intraday Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, I didn't short it today.

On Monday if WMT fills it's downside gap at 47.60 early on I'll look to trade WMT and possibly also the ultra long SPX ETF SSO. I'll wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 type upcycle and look to buy in Wave 2 down. If WMT and SPX pop early on I'll look to short WMT and buy the ultra short SPX ETF SDS.

WMT will very likely fill it's downside gap at 47.60, especially since Wave A of Wave C bottomed at 47.77, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. See SPX's 1 day chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

The WMT Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX today, but, the gap narrowed substantially toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.87% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. If I'm not trading WMT/SDS or WMT/SSO early on Monday I may short GLD (gold ETF) or GDX (gold miners ETF).

GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal today, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from yesterday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 appears to have peaked at 1.82 (bearish double top) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle.

That's all for now. Ciao. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

.....................SPX Failed To Do Wave 5

SPX failed to do the Wave 5 discussed earlier today (see below), which obviously reveals how bearish the market is now, that it can't complete a Wave 5 that normally would happen 90%+ of the time. In a likely Wave B type oversold bounce today/Monday I'll look to "get my shorts on."

"Why I didn't short WMT and buy the "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS yet? Because the S & P 500 (SPX) "needs to do" (very likely) the Wave 5 upcycle of the upcycle that began early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Notice that Waves 2 and 4 down did Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns. Elliott Wave is so cool it isn't funny.

Reliable SPX Lead Indicator WMT is (probably) in Wave C of Wave C of a (long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, since a monster short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 in early June, for the monthly upcycle that began at 46.32 in late May, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Wednesday's cycle low at 47.77 should be the Wave A of Wave C cycle low. Therefore, WMT should bottom below 47.77 today or Monday, shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60. WMT's short term Wave 4 should bottom in the 47 to 47.50 range. Ciao." ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

Why I Didn't Short WMT And Buy The "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS Yet

Why I didn't short WMT and buy the "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS yet? Because the S & P 500 (SPX) "needs to do" (very likely) the Wave 5 upcycle of the upcycle that began early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Notice that Waves 2 and 4 down did Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns. Elliott Wave is so cool it isn't funny.

Reliable SPX Lead Indicator WMT is (probably) in Wave C of Wave C of a (long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, since a monster short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 in early June, for the monthly upcycle that began at 46.32 in late May, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Wednesday's cycle low at 47.77 should be the Wave A of Wave C cycle low. Therefore, WMT should bottom below 47.77 today or Monday, shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60. WMT's short term Wave 4 should bottom in the 47 to 47.50 range. Ciao. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators Were Very Bearish Today

The internet network had problems earlier today/Thursday 6-21, which is why this is a very late post market update.

The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators were very bearish today, at -1.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) for the WMT Lead Indicator and at -0.98% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator. The WMT Lead Indicator became more bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, as did the NEM Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

Reliable SPX Lead Indicator WMT is (probably) in Wave C of Wave C of a (long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, since a monster short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 in early June, for the monthly upcycle that began at 46.32 in late May, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Yesterday's cycle low at 47.77 should be the Wave A of Wave C cycle low. Therefore, WMT should bottom below 47.77 tomorrow (or Monday).

I'll be looking to short WMT and buy the "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS (has strong volume, you don't need a margin account to effectively short sell anymore, though I do of course have a margin account) tomorrow.

Once GNBT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt) clearly breaks it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 3 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.

GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

TMTA is probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 4, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta. Once TMTA clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.

MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move on Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked yesterday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at Tuesday's open from 1.23. MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4. Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.

HOKU is NOT in Wave C of a monthly downcycle, but, surprised to the upside today/final Wave 5 may have peaked, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hoku&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. HOKU made a huge bullish breakaway gap from 4.60 recently.

FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down appears to have bottomed at 7.57 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. I'll look to buy once FCEL clearly breaks it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, that is, when a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurs.

EPCT's volume has dried up, so it's probably too thin to trade for now at least, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii.

AVNR did NOT hit a Monthly Cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The reason being that one must also wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle that's evident on the daily chart. AVNR should have trended up for at least a session or two after the strong rally to 3.35 from 3.04 on strong volume on 6-14. Instead, it peaked at 3.35 the same session, which is not a monthly cycle buy signal.

Today's downside surprise (so far) to 3.01 forced me to figure out where I went wrong. It should be a rare occurrence that a buy signal fails. Once a buy signal occurs the cycle low obviously should be in, so, lower cycle lows shouldn't happen.

What I've been mistakenly saying previously: "AVNR's monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 on Thursday 6-14, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume on Thursday 6-14, which was a monthly cycle buy signal."

DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 (possibly monthly) cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. The downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31 may get filled in Wave 4 (might be Wave C of a monthly downcycle). The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU

AVNR Did NOT Hit A Monthly Cycle Buy Signal Recently

AVNR did NOT hit a Monthly Cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The reason being that one must also wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle that's evident on the daily chart. AVNR should have trended up for at least a session or two after the strong rally to 3.35 from 3.04 on strong volume on 6-14. Instead, it peaked at 3.35 the same session, which is not a monthly cycle buy signal.

Today's downside surprise (so far) to 3.01 forced me to figure out where I went wrong. It should be a rare occurrence that a buy signal fails. Once a buy signal occurs the cycle low obviously should be in, so, lower cycle lows shouldn't happen.

What I've been mistakenly saying previously: "AVNR's monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 on Thursday 6-14, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume on Thursday 6-14, which was a monthly cycle buy signal."

Also, GNBT did NOT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal yesterday, because, it also needs to break it's short term downtrend line (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll look to buy on after it breaks it's short term downtrend line.

What I said yesterday: "The rise to 1.77 on strong volume (short term buy signal (NOT)), plus the large inverse spike on today's candle, are signs that Wave 2 bottomed at 1.65. "

GNBT's Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

SPX's Short Term Wave 4 Downcycle Went Parabolic As Expected

SPX's Short Term Wave 4 Downcycle went parabolic as expected today, and, may have bottomed at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

I came very close to shorting WMT and buying the "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS (has strong volume, you don't need a margin account to effectively short sell anymore, though I do of course have a margin account) early today, but, WMT's mid session strength kept me out, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. It would have ended up being a day trade.

Tomorrow I'll look to trade the "Ultra Long" SPX ETF SSO once the short term Wave 5 upcycle begins (probably will at the open). I'll wait for significant strength, an intraday Wave 1 type move, then look to buy an intraday Wave 2 type pullback.

SPX is/was probably in a short term Wave 4 down of the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the intermediate term upcycle since mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.

The very bullish WMT Lead Indicator today (+0.91% versus SPX), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, points to significant strength for SPX and most sectors tomorrow, due to program buying.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.17% versus the XAU today, and, was a bearish -2.57% versus the XAU last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.

The rockets highlights are as follows:

GNBT's (price/volume action looks great) short term Wave 2 down downcycle probably bottomed at 1.65 today (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The rise to 1.77 on strong volume (short term buy signal), plus the large inverse spike on today's candle, are signs that Wave 2 bottomed at 1.65. I'll look to buy on weakness tomorrow.

GNBT's Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.

A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in Wave C of a short term Wave 4 down that may bottom tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy this tomorrow.

MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move yesterday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked today at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at yesterday's open from 1.23.

HOKU is in Wave C of a monthly downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hoku&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. HOKU made a huge bullish breakaway gap from 4.60 recently.

Monday EPCT hit a Wave 2 short term cycle low at 2.26, which means that the downside gap at 2.18 that occurred at Friday's open is a bullish breakaway gap. EPCT broke it's Wave 2 short term downtrend with a vengeance and hit a short term buy signal yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=epct&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

On a daily chart yesterday's move looked like a Wave B type move, but, EPCT appears to have done a complete Elliott Wave short term Wave 2 downcycle that bottomed at 2.26 on Monday, based on the Elliott Wave count. Early last Friday there was a down up down Wave A followed by a Wave B up and a down up down Wave C that bottomed at 2.26 on Monday. Also, the large inverse spike that occurred Monday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?epct), plus the fact that the downside gap at 2.18 is a breakaway gap, are bullish signs. EPCT rose like a rocket yesterday and has had a sharp pullback, so, I'm looking to buy.

CVTX's continued to go nuts on very strong volume yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cvtx. What probably happened is that CVTX was actually in the final very parabolic Wave 5 upcycle (a brief "monthly" upcycle) of the intermediate term upcycle that began at 6.43 in late March. The monthly upcycle since hitting 9.75 in early June was probably important topping action. Therefore, I probably won't be buying a very short term pullback, but, will look for a multi week Elliott wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle.

As discussed before QTWW's short term Wave 5 ran away from me, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, so, I'll look to buy after a one to two week Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle. QTWW filled it's downside gap at 1.46 on Tuesday 6-12 (monthly cycle low at 1.17), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. QTWW's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 1.434 on Wednesday 6-13.

ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday 6-11's open as expected last Wednesday 6-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy a pullback this week. ACAD's short term Wave 3 may have peaked today at 15.42 (monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5).

RVNG.OB's short term Wave 4 probably bottomed at 1.10 last Wednesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. There's a bullish double bottom, with each cycle low having a large bullish inverse spike. There's a downside gap at 1.00 (bullish breakaway gap) that will probably get filled later on. RVNG may actually be in Wave B up of a monthly downcycle, the Elliott Wave count isn't clear right now, so, I'm holding off on this for now.

AVNR's monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 on Thursday 6-14, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume on Thursday 6-14, which was a monthly cycle buy signal.

DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. The downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31 may get filled in Wave 4. The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.

Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.

The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.

There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).

If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.

I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.

As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.

HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .

HUI NEM XAU