DNDN Probably Put In A Monthly Cycle Low At 6.30 Yesterday
DNDN managed to put in a higher cycle high at today's open (at 7.65) than yesterday's cycle high (7.50), which is a monthly cycle buy signal, because DNDN was able to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle. So, DNDN probably put in a monthly cycle low at 6.30 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn, and, rose dramatically on very strong volume, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Note that volume exploded in tandem with price, which is a great sign.
DNDN may do a Wave C type sharp decline early tomorrow and fill today's downside gap created at the open at 7.17 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), at which point I will look to buy, possibly for a day trade.
GNBT failed to fill yesterday's upside gap at 1.84, so, yesterday's cycle low at 1.73 may not be the Wave 2 of (a short term) Wave 3 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
My favorite rocket now is GNBT (though TMTA and DNDN also look great), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early Monday, with a huge spike to 2.05, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday 6-22, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday 6-21's Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
FCEL put in a (long) short term Wave 1 cycle high at 8.05 after hitting a monthly cycle low at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The cycle low at 7.57 was Wave A of Wave 2 down not the final Wave 2 cycle low, and, Tuesday's cycle low at 7.55 (bullish double bottom with 7.57) was the final Wave C of (short term) Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll be looking to buy FCEL on weakness tomorrow.
TMTA ran away from me recently and is in Wave 3 or 4 of a Wave 5 short term upcycle. I may wait for it to do a monthly downcycle before trading it or I may day trade it.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday 6-22, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday 6-22. Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked Monday, note the large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, maybe TMTA (might day trade this), maybe DNDN (might day trade this or hold overnight), and, possibly also FCEL. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal (decisively breaks short term Wave 4 downtrend line since early June), so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.
WMT may still fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the Short Term Wave 4 (since early June), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low was 48.17 versus yesterday's cycle low at 47.76 versus Tuesday's at 47.75 and Monday's at 47.69, that appears to be the short term Wave 4 cycle low. Even if 47.60 doesn't get filled WMT's short term Wave 4 will have bottomed very near 47.60 at 47.69, so, tracking gaps still was very useful.
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60 OR it may have bottomed Monday at 47.69, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range (if 47.69 isn't the cycle low), especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.48% versus SPX today after being bullish the prior four sessions. It was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, a very bullish +0.63% versus the S & P 500 Tuesday, it was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 Monday, and, was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday 6-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.03% versus the XAU today, was a very bearish -1.27% versus the XAU yesterday, was a very bullish +1.07% versus the XAU Tuesday, and, was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
DNDN may do a Wave C type sharp decline early tomorrow and fill today's downside gap created at the open at 7.17 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), at which point I will look to buy, possibly for a day trade.
GNBT failed to fill yesterday's upside gap at 1.84, so, yesterday's cycle low at 1.73 may not be the Wave 2 of (a short term) Wave 3 cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
My favorite rocket now is GNBT (though TMTA and DNDN also look great), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 peaked early Monday, with a huge spike to 2.05, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT is obviously exhibiting great price/volume action in this monthly upcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal on Friday 6-22, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday 6-21's Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
FCEL put in a (long) short term Wave 1 cycle high at 8.05 after hitting a monthly cycle low at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The cycle low at 7.57 was Wave A of Wave 2 down not the final Wave 2 cycle low, and, Tuesday's cycle low at 7.55 (bullish double bottom with 7.57) was the final Wave C of (short term) Wave 2 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. I'll be looking to buy FCEL on weakness tomorrow.
TMTA ran away from me recently and is in Wave 3 or 4 of a Wave 5 short term upcycle. I may wait for it to do a monthly downcycle before trading it or I may day trade it.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday 6-22, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday 6-22. Wave 1 of a short term Wave 5 peaked Monday, note the large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Tomorrow I'll be looking to go long GNBT, maybe TMTA (might day trade this), maybe DNDN (might day trade this or hold overnight), and, possibly also FCEL. I'll also be looking to trade WMT and the "ultra long" SPX ETF SSO once WMT fills (or clearly doesn't) it's downside gap at 47.60. If the WMT Lead Indicator is bullish I may hold WMT/SSO overnight. A lot also depends on the Elliott Wave patterns of course. Also, normally I wouldn't trade a stock long until it hits a short term buy signal (decisively breaks short term Wave 4 downtrend line since early June), so, I may just day trade WMT and/or SSO tomorrow.
WMT may still fill it's downside gap at 47.60 in the Short Term Wave 4 (since early June), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Today's cycle low was 48.17 versus yesterday's cycle low at 47.76 versus Tuesday's at 47.75 and Monday's at 47.69, that appears to be the short term Wave 4 cycle low. Even if 47.60 doesn't get filled WMT's short term Wave 4 will have bottomed very near 47.60 at 47.69, so, tracking gaps still was very useful.
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60 OR it may have bottomed Monday at 47.69, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47 (monthly cycle low at 46.32), so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range (if 47.69 isn't the cycle low), especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.48% versus SPX today after being bullish the prior four sessions. It was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, a very bullish +0.63% versus the S & P 500 Tuesday, it was a bullish +0.30% versus the S & P 500 Monday, and, was a modestly bullish +0.13% versus SPX on Friday 6-22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.03% versus the XAU today, was a very bearish -1.27% versus the XAU yesterday, was a very bullish +1.07% versus the XAU Tuesday, and, was a very bullish +1.47% versus the XAU on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:14 PM
