.......................Rockets Thoughts
The rockets that look great/good and timely now are GNBT, TMTA, ACAD, FCEL, and MDII. GNBT, MDII, and TMTA will probably have sharp pullbacks on Monday, at which point I'll look to buy, probably after an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern occurs.
FCEL should put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high early on Monday than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Then I'll look to/might buy FCEL on a pullback IF the expected early strength occurs.
ACAD appears to have put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low on Friday. If so it should pop on Monday (show good price/volume action and hit a Wave 5 buy signal), and, I may buy some, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad.
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47, so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal yesterday/Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 appears to have peaked at 1.82 (bearish double top) on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3).
GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Looking at the 1 day chart it looks like TMTA will pull back early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TMTA&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is probably in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy this Monday.
MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move on Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked Wednesday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at Tuesday's open from 1.23. MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4 and will probably take out Wednesday's likely Wave A of Wave 4 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down probably bottomed at 7.57 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND had strong price/volume action, so, a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurred.
FCEL should put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high early on Monday than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The very short term Wave 1 upcycle (since hitting 7.57 early on Thursday) of the short term Wave 3 should peak early on Monday. If FCEL fails to put in a higher cycle high early on Monday than Friday's cycle high that's obviously a bearish sign. FCEL should put in a healthy Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up very short term upcycle is the point, which will be Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday 6-11's open as expected on Wednesday 6-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. ACAD's short term Wave 3 peaked at 15.42 (monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5). Wave 4 down may have bottomed on Friday. I'll be looking to buy this week.
Keep an eye on DNDN. DNDN needs to establish a monthly cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. The downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31 will very likely get filled, and, DNDN's monthly downcycle should bottom shortly thereafter. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term or monthly cycle buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
FCEL should put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high early on Monday than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Then I'll look to/might buy FCEL on a pullback IF the expected early strength occurs.
ACAD appears to have put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low on Friday. If so it should pop on Monday (show good price/volume action and hit a Wave 5 buy signal), and, I may buy some, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad.
With non rocket WMT it's short term Wave 4 (Wave 3 cycle high at 51.44) should bottom shortly after filling it's downside gap at 47.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The short term Wave 2 bottomed at 46.47, so, 47-47.50 should be a reliable short term Wave 4 cycle low target range, especially given the downside gap at 47.60. I may bottom pick WMT, but, I'll still probably wait for a significant intraday Wave 1 upcycle and look to buy during an intraday Wave 2 downcycle.
GNBT hit a short term Wave 3 buy signal yesterday/Friday, when it broke it's Wave 2 downtrend line and rose substantially on strong volume (2.82 million shares) to 1.82 from Thursday's likely Wave 2 cycle low at 1.52, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt. Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3 appears to have peaked at 1.82 (bearish double top) on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll look to buy GNBT after a very short term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle (Wave 2 of the short term Wave 3).
GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA, which had huge volume of 23.18 million shares on Friday, had a brief short term Wave 4 down that bottomed on June 19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. TMTA didn't hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal until Friday. Looking at the 1 day chart it looks like TMTA will pull back early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=TMTA&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
A new rocket whose price/volume action looks great is TMTA, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta, which entered a monthly upcycle and probably a new Cyclical Bull Market at 0.28 in early June. TMTA is probably in a short term Wave 5 upcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmta&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy this Monday.
MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move on Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked Wednesday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at Tuesday's open from 1.23. MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4 and will probably take out Wednesday's likely Wave A of Wave 4 cycle low, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=MDII&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down probably bottomed at 7.57 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL broke it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND had strong price/volume action, so, a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurred.
FCEL should put in a higher very short term Wave 5 cycle high early on Monday than the very short term Wave 3 cycle high that occurred early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=fcel&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. The very short term Wave 1 upcycle (since hitting 7.57 early on Thursday) of the short term Wave 3 should peak early on Monday. If FCEL fails to put in a higher cycle high early on Monday than Friday's cycle high that's obviously a bearish sign. FCEL should put in a healthy Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up very short term upcycle is the point, which will be Wave 1 of the short term Wave 3.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday 6-11's open as expected on Wednesday 6-13, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. ACAD's short term Wave 3 peaked at 15.42 (monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5). Wave 4 down may have bottomed on Friday. I'll be looking to buy this week.
Keep an eye on DNDN. DNDN needs to establish a monthly cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. The downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31 will very likely get filled, and, DNDN's monthly downcycle should bottom shortly thereafter. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term or monthly cycle buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:38 AM
