The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators Were Very Bearish Today
The internet network had problems earlier today/Thursday 6-21, which is why this is a very late post market update.
The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators were very bearish today, at -1.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) for the WMT Lead Indicator and at -0.98% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator. The WMT Lead Indicator became more bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, as did the NEM Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Reliable SPX Lead Indicator WMT is (probably) in Wave C of Wave C of a (long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, since a monster short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 in early June, for the monthly upcycle that began at 46.32 in late May, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Yesterday's cycle low at 47.77 should be the Wave A of Wave C cycle low. Therefore, WMT should bottom below 47.77 tomorrow (or Monday).
I'll be looking to short WMT and buy the "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS (has strong volume, you don't need a margin account to effectively short sell anymore, though I do of course have a margin account) tomorrow.
Once GNBT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt) clearly breaks it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 3 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA is probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 4, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta. Once TMTA clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move on Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked yesterday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at Tuesday's open from 1.23. MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4. Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
HOKU is NOT in Wave C of a monthly downcycle, but, surprised to the upside today/final Wave 5 may have peaked, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hoku&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. HOKU made a huge bullish breakaway gap from 4.60 recently.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down appears to have bottomed at 7.57 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. I'll look to buy once FCEL clearly breaks it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, that is, when a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurs.
EPCT's volume has dried up, so it's probably too thin to trade for now at least, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii.
AVNR did NOT hit a Monthly Cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The reason being that one must also wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle that's evident on the daily chart. AVNR should have trended up for at least a session or two after the strong rally to 3.35 from 3.04 on strong volume on 6-14. Instead, it peaked at 3.35 the same session, which is not a monthly cycle buy signal.
Today's downside surprise (so far) to 3.01 forced me to figure out where I went wrong. It should be a rare occurrence that a buy signal fails. Once a buy signal occurs the cycle low obviously should be in, so, lower cycle lows shouldn't happen.
What I've been mistakenly saying previously: "AVNR's monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 on Thursday 6-14, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume on Thursday 6-14, which was a monthly cycle buy signal."
DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 (possibly monthly) cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. The downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31 may get filled in Wave 4 (might be Wave C of a monthly downcycle). The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators were very bearish today, at -1.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) for the WMT Lead Indicator and at -0.98% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator. The WMT Lead Indicator became more bearish late in the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, as did the NEM Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Reliable SPX Lead Indicator WMT is (probably) in Wave C of Wave C of a (long) short term Wave 4 downcycle, since a monster short term Wave 3 peaked at 51.44 in early June, for the monthly upcycle that began at 46.32 in late May, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. Yesterday's cycle low at 47.77 should be the Wave A of Wave C cycle low. Therefore, WMT should bottom below 47.77 tomorrow (or Monday).
I'll be looking to short WMT and buy the "Ultra Short" SPX ETF SDS (has strong volume, you don't need a margin account to effectively short sell anymore, though I do of course have a margin account) tomorrow.
Once GNBT (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt) clearly breaks it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 3 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
GNBT's short term Wave 1 peaked Wednesday 6-13 at 2.14. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
TMTA is probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 4, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta. Once TMTA clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
MDII completed a two month intermediate term Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle/correction recently, putting in a monthly and an intermediate term cycle low at 1.15, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. MDII had a huge spike move on Tuesday in a short term Wave 3 that peaked yesterday at 1.73, and, made a large bullish breakaway gap at Tuesday's open from 1.23. MDII is probably in Wave C of Wave 4. Once MDII clearly breaks it's short term Wave 4 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, a short term Wave 5 buy signal will occur, and, I'll look to buy in a very short term Wave 2 type pullback.
HOKU is NOT in Wave C of a monthly downcycle, but, surprised to the upside today/final Wave 5 may have peaked, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hoku&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. HOKU made a huge bullish breakaway gap from 4.60 recently.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday 6-12, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL's short term Wave 2 down appears to have bottomed at 7.57 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. I'll look to buy once FCEL clearly breaks it's short term Wave 2 downtrend line AND shows strong price/volume action, that is, when a short term Wave 3 buy signal occurs.
EPCT's volume has dried up, so it's probably too thin to trade for now at least, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii.
AVNR did NOT hit a Monthly Cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The reason being that one must also wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle that's evident on the daily chart. AVNR should have trended up for at least a session or two after the strong rally to 3.35 from 3.04 on strong volume on 6-14. Instead, it peaked at 3.35 the same session, which is not a monthly cycle buy signal.
Today's downside surprise (so far) to 3.01 forced me to figure out where I went wrong. It should be a rare occurrence that a buy signal fails. Once a buy signal occurs the cycle low obviously should be in, so, lower cycle lows shouldn't happen.
What I've been mistakenly saying previously: "AVNR's monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 on Thursday 6-14, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume on Thursday 6-14, which was a monthly cycle buy signal."
DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 (possibly monthly) cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. The downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31 may get filled in Wave 4 (might be Wave C of a monthly downcycle). The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:26 PM
