The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators Became Even More Bearish
The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators became even more bearish today. The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 today, and, has been very bearish recently, see the very bearish 5 day WMT Lead Indicator chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The S & P 500 (SPX) completed a 2+ session Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bearish large spike on Friday's candle at the next link.
SPX is probably in a short term Wave 4 down of the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the intermediate term upcycle since mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.61% versus the XAU today, and, was a bearish -2.57% versus the XAU last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Today's rockets action was as follows:
A mildly exciting thing that occurred today is that EPCT appears to have hit a Wave 2 short term cycle low at 2.33, which, if so, means that the downside gap at 2.18 that occurred at Friday's open is a bullish breakaway gap. However, EPCT needs to break it's Wave 2 short term downtrend and hit a short term buy signal, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=epct&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
The large inverse spike on the intraday and the daily charts (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?epct) is a sign that the short term Wave 2 probably bottomed today, but, waiting for strength, a short term buy signal/very short term Wave 1 type move, then buying a Wave 2 type pullback, makes a lot of sense.
More excitement came from FCEL's short term Wave 1 continuing to surprise to the upside, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL will probably clearly enter Wave 2 down tomorrow. I'll look to buy FCEL in Wave 2. FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 last Tuesday.
QTWW is acting well also and may be "running away from me," meaning that Wave 5 will peak without having a sharp pullback, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. We'll see. QTWW filled it's downside gap at 1.46 last Tuesday (monthly cycle low at 1.17), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. QTWW's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 1.434 on Wednesday. I'll be looking to buy a pullback this week, since QTWW clearly broke it's Wave 4 downtrend line and hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal.
GNBT is probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 down downcycle(http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 1 peaked on Wednesday at 2.14. Thursday's early spike move, that failed to do a third/Wave 5 upcycle, was a sign that it was probably Wave B of the short term Wave 2 down. Once it bottoms at 1.60ish (Wave A of Wave 2 was 1.76 early yesterday) I'll probably jump in. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
Another new rocket, CVTX, hit a monthly cycle low at 9.75 and may have entered a short term Wave 2 today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cvtx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cvtx.
AVNR's (Wave C of it's) monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume on Thursday, which was a monthly cycle buy signal.
DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN put in a potential short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.38 on Wednesday versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00 and a monthly cycle low at 4.95. Thursday's downside gap at 7.51 got filled today, and, there's a downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31. The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday's open as expected on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy a pullback this week. ACAD is in Wave 4 of a short term Wave 3 after putting in a monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5.
RVNG.OB's short term Wave 4 probably bottomed at 1.10 on Wednesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. There's a bullish double bottom, with each cycle low having a large bullish inverse spike. There's a downside gap at 1.00 (bullish breakaway gap) that will probably get filled later on. I'll be looking to buy once RVNG clearly breaks it's Wave 4 downtrend line. For the fourth session in a row RVNG has a bullish large inverse spike.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The S & P 500 (SPX) completed a 2+ session Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle early on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bearish large spike on Friday's candle at the next link.
SPX is probably in a short term Wave 4 down of the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the intermediate term upcycle since mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.61% versus the XAU today, and, was a bearish -2.57% versus the XAU last week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Today's rockets action was as follows:
A mildly exciting thing that occurred today is that EPCT appears to have hit a Wave 2 short term cycle low at 2.33, which, if so, means that the downside gap at 2.18 that occurred at Friday's open is a bullish breakaway gap. However, EPCT needs to break it's Wave 2 short term downtrend and hit a short term buy signal, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=epct&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
The large inverse spike on the intraday and the daily charts (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?epct) is a sign that the short term Wave 2 probably bottomed today, but, waiting for strength, a short term buy signal/very short term Wave 1 type move, then buying a Wave 2 type pullback, makes a lot of sense.
More excitement came from FCEL's short term Wave 1 continuing to surprise to the upside, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. FCEL will probably clearly enter Wave 2 down tomorrow. I'll look to buy FCEL in Wave 2. FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 last Tuesday.
QTWW is acting well also and may be "running away from me," meaning that Wave 5 will peak without having a sharp pullback, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. We'll see. QTWW filled it's downside gap at 1.46 last Tuesday (monthly cycle low at 1.17), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. QTWW's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 1.434 on Wednesday. I'll be looking to buy a pullback this week, since QTWW clearly broke it's Wave 4 downtrend line and hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal.
GNBT is probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 down downcycle(http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 1 peaked on Wednesday at 2.14. Thursday's early spike move, that failed to do a third/Wave 5 upcycle, was a sign that it was probably Wave B of the short term Wave 2 down. Once it bottoms at 1.60ish (Wave A of Wave 2 was 1.76 early yesterday) I'll probably jump in. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
Another new rocket, CVTX, hit a monthly cycle low at 9.75 and may have entered a short term Wave 2 today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cvtx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cvtx.
AVNR's (Wave C of it's) monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 on Thursday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume on Thursday, which was a monthly cycle buy signal.
DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN put in a potential short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.38 on Wednesday versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00 and a monthly cycle low at 4.95. Thursday's downside gap at 7.51 got filled today, and, there's a downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31. The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday's open as expected on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy a pullback this week. ACAD is in Wave 4 of a short term Wave 3 after putting in a monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5.
RVNG.OB's short term Wave 4 probably bottomed at 1.10 on Wednesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. There's a bullish double bottom, with each cycle low having a large bullish inverse spike. There's a downside gap at 1.00 (bullish breakaway gap) that will probably get filled later on. I'll be looking to buy once RVNG clearly breaks it's Wave 4 downtrend line. For the fourth session in a row RVNG has a bullish large inverse spike.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:19 PM
