WMT Didn't Fill It's Downside Gap at 49.47 Today
WMT didn't fill it's downside gap at 49.47 (created at Monday's open) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Since the WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.50% versus the S & P 500 today and became more bearish toward session's end (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), there's a good chance that 49.47 will get filled on Monday. The downside gap at 47.60 from 5-31 may not get filled until after WMT's monthly upcycle peaks. WMT is currently in a short term Wave 4 down, or, is early in Wave 5 if 49.47 doesn't get filled until later.
DNDN hit a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.55 on Monday and hit a monthly cycle low at 4.95, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. I'm waiting for DNDN to clearly break out of it's very short term downtrending channel (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), which didn't happen today. It'll probably happen Monday, then I'll look to buy a Wave 2 type significant pullback. DNDN has a huge bullish breakaway gap at 6.74 from 5-31.
AVNR has a bullish breakaway gap at 3.22 from 5-31 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), and, probably put in a monthly cycle low at 3.26 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The cycle high at 3.75 yesterday was (probably) the short term Wave 1 cycle high, with today's perfect double top at 3.75 being Wave B of a short term Wave 2 down, and, the final Wave C of Wave 2 cycle low might have occurred at 3.34 at session's end.
The dramatic decline (> -10%, Wave C type action) from the early cycle high at 3.75 to the session cycle low right at session's end at 3.34 indicates that an important short term Wave 2 cycle low may have occurred right at session's end at 3.34. As long as 3.26 holds on Monday then AVNR probably entered a monthly upcycle last Monday.
One has to consider the possibility that AVNR is actually doing Wave C down of a monthly downcycle, but, given the bullish breakaway gap and the fact that AVNR is acting well, it probably did an unusual two day but -18.50% (fell from 4.00 to 3.26) monthly Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle. It doesn't look like a monthly downcycle on the daily chart, which is unusual.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
Waiting for a buy signal (strong Wave 1 type move) and buying a pullback (Wave 2 type move) is probably the best entry point strategy. DNDN's large inverse spike that occurred at 7.55 early on Monday was a sign that DNDN's short term Wave 4 had probably bottomed at 7.55, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
A stock I might buy on Monday if it has a strong rally (I'll look to buy a pullback) is QTWW, which is in a short term Wave 4 down (change from Wave 5 of short term Wave 3), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww, and, has a big bullish breakaway gap at 1.46 from 5-31 (monthly cycle low at 1.17), but, it looks like it might fill 1.46 early next week.
Another I might buy on Monday is ACAD (a new rocket), which made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday from 12.43, and, is in a short term Wave 3 upcycle after putting in a monthly cycle low at 12.20 on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad.
MDII is in the process of putting in an intermediate term cycle low (is in Wave C of Wave C), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. One should wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle, then buy during a short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, if you're looking to buy.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 5 on Friday 5-25 after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. AGEN broke out of it's short term Wave 5 triangle and is doing well, it's in Wave 5 up of the short term Wave 5.
CEGE is NOT in a short term Wave 4, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege. A monthly cycle low MAY have occurred at 3.79, and, a potentially bullish double bottom occurred today at 3.80. Since CEGE wasn't able to do a healthy Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up monthly upcycle, one has to turn cautious until CEGE stages a strong upcycle accompanied by strong volume, in which it's apparant that a healthy monthly upcycle is very likely to be in effect (one can never say anything is 100% certain when trading/investing).
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 on Wednesday 5-30, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Wave 5 obviously appears to have peaked.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
DNDN hit a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.55 on Monday and hit a monthly cycle low at 4.95, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. I'm waiting for DNDN to clearly break out of it's very short term downtrending channel (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), which didn't happen today. It'll probably happen Monday, then I'll look to buy a Wave 2 type significant pullback. DNDN has a huge bullish breakaway gap at 6.74 from 5-31.
AVNR has a bullish breakaway gap at 3.22 from 5-31 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), and, probably put in a monthly cycle low at 3.26 on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. The cycle high at 3.75 yesterday was (probably) the short term Wave 1 cycle high, with today's perfect double top at 3.75 being Wave B of a short term Wave 2 down, and, the final Wave C of Wave 2 cycle low might have occurred at 3.34 at session's end.
The dramatic decline (> -10%, Wave C type action) from the early cycle high at 3.75 to the session cycle low right at session's end at 3.34 indicates that an important short term Wave 2 cycle low may have occurred right at session's end at 3.34. As long as 3.26 holds on Monday then AVNR probably entered a monthly upcycle last Monday.
One has to consider the possibility that AVNR is actually doing Wave C down of a monthly downcycle, but, given the bullish breakaway gap and the fact that AVNR is acting well, it probably did an unusual two day but -18.50% (fell from 4.00 to 3.26) monthly Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle. It doesn't look like a monthly downcycle on the daily chart, which is unusual.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
Waiting for a buy signal (strong Wave 1 type move) and buying a pullback (Wave 2 type move) is probably the best entry point strategy. DNDN's large inverse spike that occurred at 7.55 early on Monday was a sign that DNDN's short term Wave 4 had probably bottomed at 7.55, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
A stock I might buy on Monday if it has a strong rally (I'll look to buy a pullback) is QTWW, which is in a short term Wave 4 down (change from Wave 5 of short term Wave 3), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww, and, has a big bullish breakaway gap at 1.46 from 5-31 (monthly cycle low at 1.17), but, it looks like it might fill 1.46 early next week.
Another I might buy on Monday is ACAD (a new rocket), which made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday from 12.43, and, is in a short term Wave 3 upcycle after putting in a monthly cycle low at 12.20 on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad.
MDII is in the process of putting in an intermediate term cycle low (is in Wave C of Wave C), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. One should wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle, then buy during a short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, if you're looking to buy.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 5 on Friday 5-25 after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. AGEN broke out of it's short term Wave 5 triangle and is doing well, it's in Wave 5 up of the short term Wave 5.
CEGE is NOT in a short term Wave 4, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege. A monthly cycle low MAY have occurred at 3.79, and, a potentially bullish double bottom occurred today at 3.80. Since CEGE wasn't able to do a healthy Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up monthly upcycle, one has to turn cautious until CEGE stages a strong upcycle accompanied by strong volume, in which it's apparant that a healthy monthly upcycle is very likely to be in effect (one can never say anything is 100% certain when trading/investing).
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 on Wednesday 5-30, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Wave 5 obviously appears to have peaked.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:24 PM
