.......The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators Are Bearish
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.42% versus the S & P 500 today. After putting in a bearish prominent spike/very short term cycle high early yesterday, WMT did a sharp Wave A type Elliott Wave ABC down up down decline that bottomed early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Then WMT did an anemic Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern that appears to/may have peaked late today, which jives with the bearish -0.42% versus the S & P 500 today. WMT is probably leading to the downside.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.11% versus the XAU today, but, turned bearish late in the session (the gap narrowed dramatically), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem. GLD, the gold ETF, had a bearish gap down from 65.07 today, and, didn't make a serious attempt at filling it. GLD is oversold, which is why I didn't short some today.
Rockets showing some life today were AVNR, DNDN, and FCEL.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 3 on Friday after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. I might buy some tomorrow.
AVNR's short term Wave 4 finally bottomed at 2.94 today (monthly cycle low at 2.36), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rose dramatically to 3.32 on strong volume before closing at 3.22.
DNDN is in Wave 5 of a short term Wave 3, in which it should peak well above Wave 3 of Wave 3's cycle high at 7.30 (monthly cycle low at 4.95), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. I may go long DNDN tomorrow.
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 today, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.11% versus the XAU today, but, turned bearish late in the session (the gap narrowed dramatically), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem. GLD, the gold ETF, had a bearish gap down from 65.07 today, and, didn't make a serious attempt at filling it. GLD is oversold, which is why I didn't short some today.
Rockets showing some life today were AVNR, DNDN, and FCEL.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 3 on Friday after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. I might buy some tomorrow.
AVNR's short term Wave 4 finally bottomed at 2.94 today (monthly cycle low at 2.36), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rose dramatically to 3.32 on strong volume before closing at 3.22.
DNDN is in Wave 5 of a short term Wave 3, in which it should peak well above Wave 3 of Wave 3's cycle high at 7.30 (monthly cycle low at 4.95), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. I may go long DNDN tomorrow.
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 today, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:24 PM
