.......The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators Are Bearish
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.32% versus the S & P 500 today, and, was a bearish -1.72% this week, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -2.56% versus the XAU this W/E 5-18-07, and, was a very bearish -1.01% today/on 5-18, see the 5 day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
More factors pointing to weakness next week are NEM's failure to fill it's upside gap at 39.64 created at yesterday 5-17's open, hence a bearish breakaway gap occurred, and, the XAU trended down most of the session, and, will probably enter the parabolic/sharply declining part of the very short term downcycle on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Also, the gold Speculators liquidated their long position and shorted with a lot of conviction (greater than 10% changes in both their long and short positions) in the 5 day period ending 5-15-07, which makes them non contrarian on a one week basis, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, which points to potentially severe weakness in gold next week.
I reshorted the gold ETF GLD at 65.50 today after covering it at 65.48 for a tiny profit (entry point at 65.61 in late March) a few days ago. I also bought some XAU June 125 puts (XAVRE) at 0.75 today.
For the rockets it looks like AVNR will do Wave 5 of the short term Wave 3 (began at 2.50 early on Thursday 5-17) early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
CEGE may have hit a monthly cycle low at 3.79 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege.
CALVF.OB continued to plumb new lows today in Wave C of it's monthly downcycle, hitting 0.125 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?calvf. I'm looking for a monthly cycle low in the 10-14 cent range, as discussed in recent weeks.
I was correctly cautious about day trading DNDN today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/avnr-exploded-to-370-dndn-analysis-and.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -2.56% versus the XAU this W/E 5-18-07, and, was a very bearish -1.01% today/on 5-18, see the 5 day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
More factors pointing to weakness next week are NEM's failure to fill it's upside gap at 39.64 created at yesterday 5-17's open, hence a bearish breakaway gap occurred, and, the XAU trended down most of the session, and, will probably enter the parabolic/sharply declining part of the very short term downcycle on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Also, the gold Speculators liquidated their long position and shorted with a lot of conviction (greater than 10% changes in both their long and short positions) in the 5 day period ending 5-15-07, which makes them non contrarian on a one week basis, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, which points to potentially severe weakness in gold next week.
I reshorted the gold ETF GLD at 65.50 today after covering it at 65.48 for a tiny profit (entry point at 65.61 in late March) a few days ago. I also bought some XAU June 125 puts (XAVRE) at 0.75 today.
For the rockets it looks like AVNR will do Wave 5 of the short term Wave 3 (began at 2.50 early on Thursday 5-17) early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
CEGE may have hit a monthly cycle low at 3.79 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege.
CALVF.OB continued to plumb new lows today in Wave C of it's monthly downcycle, hitting 0.125 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?calvf. I'm looking for a monthly cycle low in the 10-14 cent range, as discussed in recent weeks.
I was correctly cautious about day trading DNDN today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/avnr-exploded-to-370-dndn-analysis-and.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:32 PM
