The WMT Lead Indicator Was A Bullish +0.31% Versus The S & P 500 Today
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.31% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-14, and, it turned bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.28% versus the XAU today/ on 5-14, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Today's session was the kind of bleak one that one would expect given that the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators were bearish on Friday, at a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU on 5-11 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at a very bearish -0.90% versus the S & P 500 on 5-11 for the WMT Lead Indicator.
AVNR is still doing Wave C of Wave C of a monthly downcycle, and, might have put in a monthly cycle low today at 2.36, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
BQI's short term Wave 4 down might have bottomed at 3.09 today versus the Wave 2 cycle low at 3.00 and a monthly cycle low at 2.85 on 5-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bqi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Click on the 3 month chart to see the monthly upcycle since 5-1 and the two spikes corresponding to Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs. I might buy some tomorrow in the 3.05-3.20 range.
DNDN hit a monthly cycle low early on Friday at 4.95, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Upside gap filling action (filled upside gaps at 5.54 and 6.11) has begun, which indicates that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred. DNDN's short term Wave 1 peaked at 6.65 early today, then it did a Wave A down and a Wave B up of Wave 2, and, was in Wave C of Wave 2 at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Click on the 1 day chart to see today's action and Elliott Wave cycles much better. I might day trade this tomorrow, and, it looks like an entry point might occur early on.
LMC's short term Wave 2 down might have bottomed at 12.07 today versus the monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I might buy some tomorrow.
TMY, a new rocket discussed in today's first post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/tmy-probably-just-entered-cyclical-bull.html), hit a short term Wave 1 cycle high early today, and, did a Wave A of Wave 2 the rest of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Once I'm convinced Wave 2 has bottomed I'll probably buy some of this, possibly tomorrow.
Two rockets in Wave C of monthly downcycles that might bottom this week are PUDC.OB (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=pudc.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) and GNLM.OB (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnlm.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==).
Reliable HUI/XAU Lead Indicator NEM might have hit an important intermediate term cycle low at 40.24 today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), very close to it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendline in effect since October 2000, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Today's session was the kind of bleak one that one would expect given that the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators were bearish on Friday, at a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU on 5-11 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at a very bearish -0.90% versus the S & P 500 on 5-11 for the WMT Lead Indicator.
AVNR is still doing Wave C of Wave C of a monthly downcycle, and, might have put in a monthly cycle low today at 2.36, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
BQI's short term Wave 4 down might have bottomed at 3.09 today versus the Wave 2 cycle low at 3.00 and a monthly cycle low at 2.85 on 5-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bqi&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Click on the 3 month chart to see the monthly upcycle since 5-1 and the two spikes corresponding to Wave 1 and 3 cycle highs. I might buy some tomorrow in the 3.05-3.20 range.
DNDN hit a monthly cycle low early on Friday at 4.95, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Upside gap filling action (filled upside gaps at 5.54 and 6.11) has begun, which indicates that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred. DNDN's short term Wave 1 peaked at 6.65 early today, then it did a Wave A down and a Wave B up of Wave 2, and, was in Wave C of Wave 2 at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Click on the 1 day chart to see today's action and Elliott Wave cycles much better. I might day trade this tomorrow, and, it looks like an entry point might occur early on.
LMC's short term Wave 2 down might have bottomed at 12.07 today versus the monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I might buy some tomorrow.
TMY, a new rocket discussed in today's first post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/tmy-probably-just-entered-cyclical-bull.html), hit a short term Wave 1 cycle high early today, and, did a Wave A of Wave 2 the rest of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=tmy&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Once I'm convinced Wave 2 has bottomed I'll probably buy some of this, possibly tomorrow.
Two rockets in Wave C of monthly downcycles that might bottom this week are PUDC.OB (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=pudc.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==) and GNLM.OB (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnlm.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==).
Reliable HUI/XAU Lead Indicator NEM might have hit an important intermediate term cycle low at 40.24 today (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), very close to it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendline in effect since October 2000, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:57 PM
