The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators Were Bearish Today
The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators were bearish today, at a bearish -0.55% versus the XAU today/on 5-11 for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at a very bearish -0.90% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-11 for the WMT Lead Indicator. I didn't buy anything today, but, Monday should bring some good trading opportunities.
Fed Credit plunged -$13.418 Billion in the 5 day period ending 5-9-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Some of that was factored in during yesterday's severe weakness, but, there's more to come. The Fed added no credit today, they rarely don't add credit, and, they only added $6.50 Billion yesterday, which is very modest for punch spiking Thursday, that's averaged $18+ Billion in recent months, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Next week should bring more severe weakness for HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX.
The gold COT data (5 day period ending 5-8-07) portends weakness accompanied by some strength, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short versus the clueless gold Speculators who traded significantly net long, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The significant long trade by the savvy gold Commercial Traders and the bordering on unusually large degree of short covering (tends to make them short term non contrarian, but, this is a bit less than the required 10% decrease in the short position required for an unusually large change) by the clueless gold Speculators points to some strength next week.
DNDN probably hit a monthly cycle low early today at 4.95, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Upside gap filling action (filled today's upside gap at 5.54) has begun, which indicates that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred. When bad news struck DNDN a few days ago there was a greater than 100 million share super buy message at Thomson I Watch (would have been a $700 million purchase at the time), see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=DNDN&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=12&y=5.
BQI's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 3.11 early today, so, I might buy some at 3.15ish on Monday. AVNR's short term Wave 4 might have bottomed today at 2.58, potentially completing an unusual inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since the Wave 3 cycle high at 6.75. NGEN's Wave 4 didn't bottom at 1.60, so, I'll reassess it on Monday. SUPG's Wave 2 might have bottomed at 6.30ish, but it could still decline significantly.
I'll be watching a recently added rocket, PUDC.OB, early next week, which should a Wave C of a monthly downcycle and bottom at 1.75ish (roughly, it's very volatile), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pudc.
Reliable HUI/XAU lead indicator NEM probably put in an important intermediate term cycle low yesterday at 40.50 (bullish double bottom with mid March's cycle low at 40.53), but, I'm waiting for it to fill yesterday's upside gap at 41.60 before looking to buy a pullback.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Fed Credit plunged -$13.418 Billion in the 5 day period ending 5-9-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Some of that was factored in during yesterday's severe weakness, but, there's more to come. The Fed added no credit today, they rarely don't add credit, and, they only added $6.50 Billion yesterday, which is very modest for punch spiking Thursday, that's averaged $18+ Billion in recent months, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Next week should bring more severe weakness for HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX.
The gold COT data (5 day period ending 5-8-07) portends weakness accompanied by some strength, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short versus the clueless gold Speculators who traded significantly net long, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The significant long trade by the savvy gold Commercial Traders and the bordering on unusually large degree of short covering (tends to make them short term non contrarian, but, this is a bit less than the required 10% decrease in the short position required for an unusually large change) by the clueless gold Speculators points to some strength next week.
DNDN probably hit a monthly cycle low early today at 4.95, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Upside gap filling action (filled today's upside gap at 5.54) has begun, which indicates that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred. When bad news struck DNDN a few days ago there was a greater than 100 million share super buy message at Thomson I Watch (would have been a $700 million purchase at the time), see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=DNDN&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=12&y=5.
BQI's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 3.11 early today, so, I might buy some at 3.15ish on Monday. AVNR's short term Wave 4 might have bottomed today at 2.58, potentially completing an unusual inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern since the Wave 3 cycle high at 6.75. NGEN's Wave 4 didn't bottom at 1.60, so, I'll reassess it on Monday. SUPG's Wave 2 might have bottomed at 6.30ish, but it could still decline significantly.
I'll be watching a recently added rocket, PUDC.OB, early next week, which should a Wave C of a monthly downcycle and bottom at 1.75ish (roughly, it's very volatile), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?pudc.
Reliable HUI/XAU lead indicator NEM probably put in an important intermediate term cycle low yesterday at 40.50 (bullish double bottom with mid March's cycle low at 40.53), but, I'm waiting for it to fill yesterday's upside gap at 41.60 before looking to buy a pullback.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
