Bearish WMT/NEM Lead Indicators And Rockets Info/Highlights
The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators have become bearish recently, the
WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.41% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-4, was -0.26% on 5-3, -0.75% on 5-2, +0.59% on 5-1, -0.09% on 4-30, -0.73% on 4-27, -0.15% on 4-26, -0.76% on 4-25, -0.46% on 4-24, and was -1.44% on 4-23. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.08% versus the XAU today/on 5-4, was -0.88% on 5-3, -1.59% on 5-2, -0.33% on 5-1, -0.10% on 4-30, and -1.86% on 4-27.
So, the S & P 500 and HUI/XAU are likely to be weak next week. HUI/XAU's countertrend Wave B of Wave A (began last Tuesday) probably peaked early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
The intermediate term cycle highs that occurred on 4-16-07 were very important for HUI/XAU. It was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 for HUI, and, Wave B of Wave C peaked way back on 12-5-06 for the XAU.
NEM hit a monthly cycle low on Tuesday at 40.90, and, put in a bullish double bottom at 40.92 on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Rockets: ANPI, AVNR, CALVF.OB, CEGE, DNDN, GNLM.OB (new), LMC, MDII, NABI, NGEN, PPCO (probably out), PPHM, PTIE, SLGLF.OB, SMDI (new), SUPG. Short term Elliott Wave patterns are usually evident on 1 and 3 month daily charts, with finetuning of the count done using a Yahoo 5 day chart, and, more finetuning is done with the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, I Watch, etc.
ANPI - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in short term Wave 1. In Wave 2 short term down cycle. Look to buy short term Wave 2 next few days. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in April 2007.
AVNR - Filled downside gap at 3.34 today. Short term Wave 4 bottomed at 3.17 on 4-26. Look to sell at 7.50-8.00+ after the upside gap at 7.40 gets filled. Wave 3 cycle high was 6.75. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
CALVF - In final Wave C of a monthly downcycle, with 10-14 cent range for cycle low. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in January 2007.
CEGE - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. I'll be looking to buy short term Wave 2 next few days, with a 4.25-4.50 target range. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
DNDN - Wave B of monthly down cycle. Look to buy at 12.50ish, shortly after the downside gap at 12.93 gets filled. DNDN is likely to put in a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed previously, shortly after filling the last of the unfilled downside gaps (except 5.22) at 12.93. An important FDA decision on Provenge is due by 5-15-07, so, it makes sense to wait for that before trading this one. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
GNLM (new) - Recently rose 500%+ and is in Wave A down of a monthly downcycle. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in December 2006.
LMC - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Wave 2 short term down cycle. Target 12-12.50. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
MDII (new) - In countertrend Wave B of a monthly downcycle. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in December 2006.
NABI - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. In short term Wave 2 downcycle. May fill downside gap at 5.14. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in December 2005.
NGEN - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. In Wave 2 short term downcycle. I may buy this. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
PPCO - Probably out, is a questionable rocket anyway. Bearish double top. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
PPHM - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. In Wave 2 short term downcycle. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
PTIE - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. In Wave 2/early Wave 3. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
SLGLF.OB - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Wave 2 down. Look to buy short term Wave 2 next few days. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in October 2006.
SMDI (new) - Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Good strong action/buy signal in Wave 1. Wave 1/early Wave 2. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in May 2005.
SUPG - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Monthly cycle low probably occurred yesterday/5-3. I may buy short term Wave 2 next few days. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in August 2006.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.41% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-4, was -0.26% on 5-3, -0.75% on 5-2, +0.59% on 5-1, -0.09% on 4-30, -0.73% on 4-27, -0.15% on 4-26, -0.76% on 4-25, -0.46% on 4-24, and was -1.44% on 4-23. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.08% versus the XAU today/on 5-4, was -0.88% on 5-3, -1.59% on 5-2, -0.33% on 5-1, -0.10% on 4-30, and -1.86% on 4-27.
So, the S & P 500 and HUI/XAU are likely to be weak next week. HUI/XAU's countertrend Wave B of Wave A (began last Tuesday) probably peaked early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
The intermediate term cycle highs that occurred on 4-16-07 were very important for HUI/XAU. It was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 for HUI, and, Wave B of Wave C peaked way back on 12-5-06 for the XAU.
NEM hit a monthly cycle low on Tuesday at 40.90, and, put in a bullish double bottom at 40.92 on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Rockets: ANPI, AVNR, CALVF.OB, CEGE, DNDN, GNLM.OB (new), LMC, MDII, NABI, NGEN, PPCO (probably out), PPHM, PTIE, SLGLF.OB, SMDI (new), SUPG. Short term Elliott Wave patterns are usually evident on 1 and 3 month daily charts, with finetuning of the count done using a Yahoo 5 day chart, and, more finetuning is done with the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, I Watch, etc.
ANPI - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in short term Wave 1. In Wave 2 short term down cycle. Look to buy short term Wave 2 next few days. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in April 2007.
AVNR - Filled downside gap at 3.34 today. Short term Wave 4 bottomed at 3.17 on 4-26. Look to sell at 7.50-8.00+ after the upside gap at 7.40 gets filled. Wave 3 cycle high was 6.75. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
CALVF - In final Wave C of a monthly downcycle, with 10-14 cent range for cycle low. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in January 2007.
CEGE - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. I'll be looking to buy short term Wave 2 next few days, with a 4.25-4.50 target range. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
DNDN - Wave B of monthly down cycle. Look to buy at 12.50ish, shortly after the downside gap at 12.93 gets filled. DNDN is likely to put in a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed previously, shortly after filling the last of the unfilled downside gaps (except 5.22) at 12.93. An important FDA decision on Provenge is due by 5-15-07, so, it makes sense to wait for that before trading this one. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
GNLM (new) - Recently rose 500%+ and is in Wave A down of a monthly downcycle. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in December 2006.
LMC - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Wave 2 short term down cycle. Target 12-12.50. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
MDII (new) - In countertrend Wave B of a monthly downcycle. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in December 2006.
NABI - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. In short term Wave 2 downcycle. May fill downside gap at 5.14. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in December 2005.
NGEN - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. In Wave 2 short term downcycle. I may buy this. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
PPCO - Probably out, is a questionable rocket anyway. Bearish double top. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
PPHM - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. In Wave 2 short term downcycle. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
PTIE - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. In Wave 2/early Wave 3. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in March 2007.
SLGLF.OB - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Wave 2 down. Look to buy short term Wave 2 next few days. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in October 2006.
SMDI (new) - Has a huge bullish breakaway gap. Good strong action/buy signal in Wave 1. Wave 1/early Wave 2. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in May 2005.
SUPG - Good strong action/buy signal occurred in Wave 1. Monthly cycle low probably occurred yesterday/5-3. I may buy short term Wave 2 next few days. Cyclical Bull Market appears to have begun in August 2006.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:12 PM
