.......CEGE Filled It's Downside Gap At 4.31
CEGE filled it's downside gap at 4.31 late today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. This means that CEGE's Wave C should be bottoming (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CEGE&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), because 3.50 is a likely large bullish breakaway gap. There will probably be more downside early tomorrow, 4.27 probably isn't the Wave C cycle low.
There's no need to bottom fish though, waiting for a complete very short term (1-2 days, or even short term =2-5 days) cycle (Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle plus ABC downcycle), in which Wave C bottoms above the Wave C cycle low that occurs late today or (likely) early tomorrow, makes sense. I'm either going to buy a Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 1, or, I'll buy a short term Wave 2 down.
PPCO has clearly entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle that looks like it might bottom early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ppco&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
ERHE.OB is either in a Wave 3 short term upcycle or is still in a large Wave 1, but, could also still be in Wave 2 down if it takes out 0.36 tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It's huge spike move has complicated the monthly cycle Elliott Wave count. It should clear up in a day or two.
AVNR's large gap up to 3.71 from 3.34 appears to be a bullish breakaway gap, and, after putting in a very short term third/Wave 5 cycle high at 3.83 early today (Wave 4 short term cycle low at 3.17 last Thursday), it did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that appears to have bottomed at 3.49 late today, so, AVNR will probably be firm early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.
Rockets that appear to be very close to monthly cycle lows are CEGE, NGEN, and PPHM.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
There's no need to bottom fish though, waiting for a complete very short term (1-2 days, or even short term =2-5 days) cycle (Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle plus ABC downcycle), in which Wave C bottoms above the Wave C cycle low that occurs late today or (likely) early tomorrow, makes sense. I'm either going to buy a Wave 2 down of a short term Wave 1, or, I'll buy a short term Wave 2 down.
PPCO has clearly entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle that looks like it might bottom early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ppco&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
ERHE.OB is either in a Wave 3 short term upcycle or is still in a large Wave 1, but, could also still be in Wave 2 down if it takes out 0.36 tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It's huge spike move has complicated the monthly cycle Elliott Wave count. It should clear up in a day or two.
AVNR's large gap up to 3.71 from 3.34 appears to be a bullish breakaway gap, and, after putting in a very short term third/Wave 5 cycle high at 3.83 early today (Wave 4 short term cycle low at 3.17 last Thursday), it did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, that appears to have bottomed at 3.49 late today, so, AVNR will probably be firm early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.
Rockets that appear to be very close to monthly cycle lows are CEGE, NGEN, and PPHM.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
