................Welcome To Rocket Trading
The focus of this blog is switching to timing red hot stocks (with decent/strong volume) from potentially any sector using "Trade the Cycles," what I call "rockets," from timing HUI/NEM/XAU, because, my trading focus is shifting to rockets.
At this point I feel that I'm beating HUI/NEM/XAU to death anyway. HUI should fall to it's primary multi year trendline at 200-220 and the XAU should fall to 85-90 in the next few months. See charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
It looks like the short term Wave A downcycle since intermediate term cycle highs occurred on 4-16-07 for HUI/XAU has more downside. HUI/XAU failed to break the Wave A downtrend line today, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.76% versus SPX today, and, became much more bearish toward session's end, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.04% versus the XAU today, and, became more bearish toward session's end.
I'll start the Rocket Trading discussion by discussing three rockets: AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN. If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
DNDN (the most notable) probably entered a new Cyclical Bull Market in late March after a 3 year Cyclical Bear Market. It made a huge bullish breakaway gap up from the 5 area on huge volume, completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, is in the midst of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. In the next week or two DNDN should complete the Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle and fill downside gaps at 14.65, 14.30, and 12.93, and bottom at 12.50ish.
CEGE is a similar situation, it should fill a downside gap at 4.31 and bottom at 4ish, with 3.50 probably being a bullish breakaway gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
AVNR is another similar story, except that it's doing a Wave 4 down (Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern) that might have bottomed today at 3.33, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Yahoo won't show today's candle until tomorrow, why I'd love to know. I'm expecting AVNR to fill an upside gap at 7.40 in Wave 5 (Wave 3 reached 6.75).
I bought a modest AVNR position in an IRA at 4.17 two days ago in the huge Wave A type move down, so, I botched the entry point, but, should still roughly double my money in a very short time if the upside gap at 7.40 gets filled as expected. Why I didn't realize that it was a likely Wave A type (fell off a cliff) move down I don't know. I was probably overeager (clouded my judgement maybe) after looking at the great charts of these stocks and the great buy signals they hit (price/volume action).
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal) and there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish). I'll be discussing that also. An example of waiting is BQI, it hit my 2.90-3.00 target for Wave 4 down, but, needs to break it's well established downtrend since early April, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bqi&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
At this point I feel that I'm beating HUI/NEM/XAU to death anyway. HUI should fall to it's primary multi year trendline at 200-220 and the XAU should fall to 85-90 in the next few months. See charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
It looks like the short term Wave A downcycle since intermediate term cycle highs occurred on 4-16-07 for HUI/XAU has more downside. HUI/XAU failed to break the Wave A downtrend line today, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.76% versus SPX today, and, became much more bearish toward session's end, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.04% versus the XAU today, and, became more bearish toward session's end.
I'll start the Rocket Trading discussion by discussing three rockets: AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN. If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
DNDN (the most notable) probably entered a new Cyclical Bull Market in late March after a 3 year Cyclical Bear Market. It made a huge bullish breakaway gap up from the 5 area on huge volume, completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, is in the midst of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. In the next week or two DNDN should complete the Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle and fill downside gaps at 14.65, 14.30, and 12.93, and bottom at 12.50ish.
CEGE is a similar situation, it should fill a downside gap at 4.31 and bottom at 4ish, with 3.50 probably being a bullish breakaway gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
AVNR is another similar story, except that it's doing a Wave 4 down (Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern) that might have bottomed today at 3.33, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Yahoo won't show today's candle until tomorrow, why I'd love to know. I'm expecting AVNR to fill an upside gap at 7.40 in Wave 5 (Wave 3 reached 6.75).
I bought a modest AVNR position in an IRA at 4.17 two days ago in the huge Wave A type move down, so, I botched the entry point, but, should still roughly double my money in a very short time if the upside gap at 7.40 gets filled as expected. Why I didn't realize that it was a likely Wave A type (fell off a cliff) move down I don't know. I was probably overeager (clouded my judgement maybe) after looking at the great charts of these stocks and the great buy signals they hit (price/volume action).
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal) and there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish). I'll be discussing that also. An example of waiting is BQI, it hit my 2.90-3.00 target for Wave 4 down, but, needs to break it's well established downtrend since early April, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bqi&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:28 PM
