AVNR Made A Large Likely Bullish Breakaway Gap And CALVF.OB Blasted Off
AVNR made a large likely bullish breakaway gap at today's open to 3.71 from 3.34 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), and, CALVF.OB has blasted off recently (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern) on strong volume, and, joined the rockets club (doing countertrend Wave B now), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, after a more than four year Cyclical Bear Market, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. LMC is another mining stock (base metals, discussed previously) in the rockets club.
AVNR put in a very short term third/Wave 5 cycle high early today at 3.83 (Wave 4 short term cycle low occurred at 3.17 last Thursday), which is why, despite the large likely bullish breakaway gap at today's open to 3.71 from 3.34, it's been lethargic, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
CALVF.OB should be a great buy (technically/cyclewise) in the 10-14 cent range, probably more like 10-12 cents for the final Wave C cycle low target range, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Wave A bottomed at 0.15ish.
PPCO probably entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle early today, so, it should do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern the next day or two, and, a good entry point should occur once Wave 2 bottoms (or nearly so, obviously one rarely catches the exact bottom), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ppco&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
ERHE.OB did a nearly 1 day Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (huge spike) that's probably a Wave 1 short term upcycle, then did a Wave 2 short term downcycle/Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern for a few hours (very short short term cycles that normally last at least a few days), so, it appears to be in a Wave 3 short term upcycle, or, a large Wave 1 may still be in effect, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/04/some-rockets-that-appear-timely.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18 month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.
Rockets that appear to be very close to monthly cycle lows are NGEN and PPHM. CEGE could bottom soon at 4ish, after filling it's downside gap at 4.31. ERHE.OB and PPCO are in Wave 1 short term upcycles or could be early in Wave 2 down of monthly upcycles.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
AVNR put in a very short term third/Wave 5 cycle high early today at 3.83 (Wave 4 short term cycle low occurred at 3.17 last Thursday), which is why, despite the large likely bullish breakaway gap at today's open to 3.71 from 3.34, it's been lethargic, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
CALVF.OB should be a great buy (technically/cyclewise) in the 10-14 cent range, probably more like 10-12 cents for the final Wave C cycle low target range, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Wave A bottomed at 0.15ish.
PPCO probably entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle early today, so, it should do an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern the next day or two, and, a good entry point should occur once Wave 2 bottoms (or nearly so, obviously one rarely catches the exact bottom), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ppco&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
ERHE.OB did a nearly 1 day Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (huge spike) that's probably a Wave 1 short term upcycle, then did a Wave 2 short term downcycle/Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern for a few hours (very short short term cycles that normally last at least a few days), so, it appears to be in a Wave 3 short term upcycle, or, a large Wave 1 may still be in effect, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/04/some-rockets-that-appear-timely.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18 month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.
Rockets that appear to be very close to monthly cycle lows are NGEN and PPHM. CEGE could bottom soon at 4ish, after filling it's downside gap at 4.31. ERHE.OB and PPCO are in Wave 1 short term upcycles or could be early in Wave 2 down of monthly upcycles.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:44 AM
