AVNR Entered A Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle Yesterday
AVNR entered a Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle yesterday, see the 5 day chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, and, see the 3 month chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c== (today's candle doesn't show up until tomorrow, weird/absurd).
Wave 3 peaked at 6.75, so, in Wave 5 AVNR is likely to fill the upside gap at 7.40 and peak at 7.75-8.00. My purchase at 4.17 last week is looking better, but, I should have realized that the move from 6.75 to 3.80ish was (likely to be) Wave A down of Wave 4. Despite that screwup I might still roughly double my money in a short term timeframe.
DNDN (the most notable) probably entered a new Cyclical Bull Market in late March after a 3 year Cyclical Bear Market. It made a huge bullish breakaway gap up from the 5 area on enormous volume, completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, is in the midst of Wave C of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. In the next few days to a week DNDN should complete the Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle and fill downside gaps at 14.65, 14.30, and 12.93, and bottom at 12.50ish.
CEGE is a similar situation (in the final Wave C), it should fill a downside gap at 4.31 in the next few days to a week and bottom at 4ish, with 3.50 probably being a bullish breakaway gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN will be the main focus for now of the "rocket trading" (hot stocks) discussion. All three recently appear to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market with a vengeance, hitting very strong buy signals due to great price/volume action, and, made huge bullish breakaway gaps to the upside, see their 3 month charts (scroll down to see CEGE and DNDN) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr%2C+cege%2C+dndn&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Wave 3 peaked at 6.75, so, in Wave 5 AVNR is likely to fill the upside gap at 7.40 and peak at 7.75-8.00. My purchase at 4.17 last week is looking better, but, I should have realized that the move from 6.75 to 3.80ish was (likely to be) Wave A down of Wave 4. Despite that screwup I might still roughly double my money in a short term timeframe.
DNDN (the most notable) probably entered a new Cyclical Bull Market in late March after a 3 year Cyclical Bear Market. It made a huge bullish breakaway gap up from the 5 area on enormous volume, completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, and, is in the midst of Wave C of an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. In the next few days to a week DNDN should complete the Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle and fill downside gaps at 14.65, 14.30, and 12.93, and bottom at 12.50ish.
CEGE is a similar situation (in the final Wave C), it should fill a downside gap at 4.31 in the next few days to a week and bottom at 4ish, with 3.50 probably being a bullish breakaway gap, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
AVNR, CEGE, and DNDN will be the main focus for now of the "rocket trading" (hot stocks) discussion. All three recently appear to have entered a Cyclical Bull Market with a vengeance, hitting very strong buy signals due to great price/volume action, and, made huge bullish breakaway gaps to the upside, see their 3 month charts (scroll down to see CEGE and DNDN) at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr%2C+cege%2C+dndn&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:33 AM
