LMC Probably Hit A Monthly Cycle Low Today At 11.86
LMC probably hit a monthly cycle low today at 11.86, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. After hitting a likely monthly cycle low at 11.86 (Yahoo day behind chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=LMC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) LMC did a very strong 5% Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, effectively a parabolic (shows up on an intraday chart) monthly cycle buy signal, that will probably correct early tomorrow and do an Elliott Wave down up down downcycle, which should bottom above 11.86 at 12-12.30ish, which is where I'll be looking to buy LMC.
LMC is a great example of waiting for a strong very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle to signal that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred, then wait for it to correct and bottom above the monthly cycle low, and, buy shortly thereafter. It's a good idea to see "good strong action" (buy signal) on strong volume (LMC had 1.44 million shares traded today) before buying something, then buy a pullback.
Another stock, and a new member of the rockets club, that may have hit a monthly cycle low today at 0.106 on over 6 million shares, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=slglf.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, is Silverado Gold Mines, SLGLF.OB, which entered a Cyclical Bull Market last October.
You should do the Elliott Wave count on a daily chart (Yahoo is a day behind on the daily charts) for each potential trading stock and see if you agree with my monthly cycle count.
CEGE might have hit a monthly cycle low today at 4.18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'm waiting for a strong very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle to signal that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred, then I'll look to buy after it's does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle that bottoms above the monthly cycle low.
DNDN probably put in a Wave B of Wave C spike early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. DNDN is likely to put in a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed previously, shortly after filling the last of the unfilled downside gaps (except 5.22) at 12.93.
AVNR didn't fill yesterday's large bullish breakaway gap at 3.34, with a cycle low at 3.36 today, but, may do so tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. In the Wave 5 short term upcycle (cycle low at 3.17 on 4-26) AVNR should fill it's upside gap at 7.40 and peak at 7.50-8.00. Wave 3 peaked at 6.75.
PPHM might have hit a monthly cycle low today at 0.9329, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=pphm&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'm waiting for a strong very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle to signal that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred, then I'll look to buy after it's does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle.
PPCO appears to have entered a short term Wave 3 at mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PPCO&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I may buy it tomorrow.
ERHE.OB did a short term Wave 2 down that appears to have bottomed early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. This stock had light volume today of 253,106 shares and was "dead in the water"/didn't act well, so, I may not trade this one near term.
CALVF.OB might still be in Wave B of a monthly downcycle or could be in Wave C, and, should bttom in the 10-14 cent range, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=calvf.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
SUPG info - Wave C target 5.75, downside gaps at 6.08, 5.90, large bullish likely breakaway gaps at 4.89, 4.61.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
LMC is a great example of waiting for a strong very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle to signal that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred, then wait for it to correct and bottom above the monthly cycle low, and, buy shortly thereafter. It's a good idea to see "good strong action" (buy signal) on strong volume (LMC had 1.44 million shares traded today) before buying something, then buy a pullback.
Another stock, and a new member of the rockets club, that may have hit a monthly cycle low today at 0.106 on over 6 million shares, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=slglf.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, is Silverado Gold Mines, SLGLF.OB, which entered a Cyclical Bull Market last October.
You should do the Elliott Wave count on a daily chart (Yahoo is a day behind on the daily charts) for each potential trading stock and see if you agree with my monthly cycle count.
CEGE might have hit a monthly cycle low today at 4.18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'm waiting for a strong very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle to signal that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred, then I'll look to buy after it's does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle that bottoms above the monthly cycle low.
DNDN probably put in a Wave B of Wave C spike early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. DNDN is likely to put in a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed previously, shortly after filling the last of the unfilled downside gaps (except 5.22) at 12.93.
AVNR didn't fill yesterday's large bullish breakaway gap at 3.34, with a cycle low at 3.36 today, but, may do so tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. In the Wave 5 short term upcycle (cycle low at 3.17 on 4-26) AVNR should fill it's upside gap at 7.40 and peak at 7.50-8.00. Wave 3 peaked at 6.75.
PPHM might have hit a monthly cycle low today at 0.9329, http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=pphm&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'm waiting for a strong very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle to signal that a monthly cycle low has probably occurred, then I'll look to buy after it's does an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction/downcycle.
PPCO appears to have entered a short term Wave 3 at mid session today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=PPCO&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I may buy it tomorrow.
ERHE.OB did a short term Wave 2 down that appears to have bottomed early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=erhe.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. This stock had light volume today of 253,106 shares and was "dead in the water"/didn't act well, so, I may not trade this one near term.
CALVF.OB might still be in Wave B of a monthly downcycle or could be in Wave C, and, should bttom in the 10-14 cent range, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=calvf.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
SUPG info - Wave C target 5.75, downside gaps at 6.08, 5.90, large bullish likely breakaway gaps at 4.89, 4.61.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away, and, ERHE.OB as of the end of last year had over $38 million in cash, which is great for an OTC Bulletin Board stock.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:10 PM
