...........Bearish NEM/WMT Lead Indicators
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.26% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-3 and was a very bearish -0.75% yesterday/on 5-2, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.88% versus the XAU today/on 5-3 and was a very bearish -1.59% versus the XAU yesterday/on 5-2. The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators became much more bearish toward session's end. So, the market in general and HUI/NEM/XAU should be weak tomorrow.
Now for the rockets:
SLGLF.OB probably hit a monthly cycle low yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=slglf.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
NABI and PTIE are "on the ins" and have been added to the rockets club. Both made very large bullish breakaway gaps yesterday on very strong volume, after completing Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles, see NABI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nabi&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
AVNR is in Wave 5 since putting in a cycle low at 3.17 on 4-26. It didn't fill it's downside gap at 3.34 today, but came close once again.
PPCO is in a Wave 3 short term upcycle but may still be in a Wave 2 down, so, I'm waiting for the picture to clear up. This one is a borderline rocket anyway.
CALVF is in Wave C of a monthly downcycle and should bottom in the 10-14 cent range.
DNDN is likely to put in a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed previously, shortly after filling the last of the unfilled downside gaps (except 5.22) at 12.93. An important FDA decision on Provenge is due by 5-15-07, so, it makes sense to wait for that before trading this one.
SUPG info - Wave C target 5.75, downside gaps at 6.08, 5.90, large bullish likely breakaway gaps at 4.89, 4.61.
NEM probably hit a monthly cycle low on Tuesday at 40.90, and, put in a bullish double bottom at 40.92 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
HUI/XAU probably put in a short term Wave A cycle low on Tuesday (probably Wave A of Wave A), but, they might take out those cycle lows tomorrow or Monday given how bearish the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators have been the past two days.
The intermediate term cycle highs that occurred on 4-16-07 were very important for HUI/XAU. It was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 for HUI, and, Wave B of Wave C peaked way back on 12-5-06 for the XAU.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Now for the rockets:
Rockets that hit monthly cycle lows in recent days and I'm looking to buy some of them late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle/early in Wave 3 up are CEGE, LMC, ANPI, PTIE, NABI, NGEN, SLGLF.OB, PPHM. They've shown "good strong action"/hit buy signals (strong Wave 1 short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycles as discussed previously) on decent/strong volume since then, which indicates that a monthly upcycle has probably begun.
ANPI was added to the rockets club, which just entered a monthly upcycle on Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=anpi&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.SLGLF.OB probably hit a monthly cycle low yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=slglf.ob&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
NABI and PTIE are "on the ins" and have been added to the rockets club. Both made very large bullish breakaway gaps yesterday on very strong volume, after completing Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycles, see NABI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nabi&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
AVNR is in Wave 5 since putting in a cycle low at 3.17 on 4-26. It didn't fill it's downside gap at 3.34 today, but came close once again.
PPCO is in a Wave 3 short term upcycle but may still be in a Wave 2 down, so, I'm waiting for the picture to clear up. This one is a borderline rocket anyway.
CALVF is in Wave C of a monthly downcycle and should bottom in the 10-14 cent range.
DNDN is likely to put in a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed previously, shortly after filling the last of the unfilled downside gaps (except 5.22) at 12.93. An important FDA decision on Provenge is due by 5-15-07, so, it makes sense to wait for that before trading this one.
SUPG info - Wave C target 5.75, downside gaps at 6.08, 5.90, large bullish likely breakaway gaps at 4.89, 4.61.
NEM probably hit a monthly cycle low on Tuesday at 40.90, and, put in a bullish double bottom at 40.92 yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
HUI/XAU probably put in a short term Wave A cycle low on Tuesday (probably Wave A of Wave A), but, they might take out those cycle lows tomorrow or Monday given how bearish the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators have been the past two days.
The intermediate term cycle highs that occurred on 4-16-07 were very important for HUI/XAU. It was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 for HUI, and, Wave B of Wave C peaked way back on 12-5-06 for the XAU.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
3:08 PM
