The Fact That The FDA Wants To See More Data Before Approving DNDN's Prostate Cancer Drug Provenge
I was busy today and just got back, so, this is what I wrote today:
The fact that the FDA wants to see more data before approving DNDN's Prostate Cancer drug Provenge (http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070509/dendreon_fda.html?.v=2) savaged DNDN's stock today, down -64.32% to 6.33, and, the news appeared to also affect AVNR (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=) and CEGE.
If AVNR can fill today's upside gap at 3.14 in the next few days then it's Wave 4 short term downcycle will have probably bottomed today at 2.73. AVNR's volume shot up to 4.67 million shares today, and, much of it came as it rallied sharply near session's end. DNDN is trying to fill it's downside gap at 5.22 in this Wave C of a monthly downcycle, and, CEGE probably needs to do Waves B and C of a monthly downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.67% versus SPX today/on 5-9 and was -0.93% on 5-8, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was -0.50% versus the XAU today/on 5-9.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The fact that the FDA wants to see more data before approving DNDN's Prostate Cancer drug Provenge (http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070509/dendreon_fda.html?.v=2) savaged DNDN's stock today, down -64.32% to 6.33, and, the news appeared to also affect AVNR (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=) and CEGE.
If AVNR can fill today's upside gap at 3.14 in the next few days then it's Wave 4 short term downcycle will have probably bottomed today at 2.73. AVNR's volume shot up to 4.67 million shares today, and, much of it came as it rallied sharply near session's end. DNDN is trying to fill it's downside gap at 5.22 in this Wave C of a monthly downcycle, and, CEGE probably needs to do Waves B and C of a monthly downcycle.
The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.67% versus SPX today/on 5-9 and was -0.93% on 5-8, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was -0.50% versus the XAU today/on 5-9.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
3:53 PM
