.......CEGE Needs To Do A Countertrend Wave B
CEGE probably needs to do (is probably in since 5-1's cycle low at 4.18) a countertrend Wave B, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, as DNDN recently did, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. For some reason I was blind to that fact. Therefore, I won't be trading CEGE long right now. Given the huge bullish breakaway gap a daredevil could trade CEGE's Wave B long like a monthly upcycle and do very well, but, I don't trade countertrend Wave Bs long.
See the previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/rockets-update-lead-indicators-i-watch.html) for the other rockets I may be trading this week.
DNDN has probably entered Wave C down, in which it should fill it's last (except 5.22) downside gap at 12.93, and, should hit a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed in recent weeks.
GNLM.OB is doing a huge Wave A down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GNLM.OB&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, and, should be a great trading stock once it finishes an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.93% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-8, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.56% versus the XAU today/on 5-8 after being a bearish -2.98% versus the XAU last week.
Thomson I Watch was very bullish for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem) and WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt) today.
Based on the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator today some good buying opportunities may arise tomorrow. Also, the fact that Thomson I Watch was very bullish today for reliable lead indicators NEM (mining stocks) and WMT (most sectors) is a good sign. Also, last week's (5 day period ending 5-2-07) huge rise in Fed Credit (+$16.947 Billion) is a major positive, because it fuels index fund program traders.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
See the previous post (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/rockets-update-lead-indicators-i-watch.html) for the other rockets I may be trading this week.
DNDN has probably entered Wave C down, in which it should fill it's last (except 5.22) downside gap at 12.93, and, should hit a monthly cycle low at 12.50ish as discussed in recent weeks.
GNLM.OB is doing a huge Wave A down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=GNLM.OB&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==, and, should be a great trading stock once it finishes an Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.93% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-8, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.56% versus the XAU today/on 5-8 after being a bearish -2.98% versus the XAU last week.
Thomson I Watch was very bullish for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem) and WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt) today.
Based on the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator today some good buying opportunities may arise tomorrow. Also, the fact that Thomson I Watch was very bullish today for reliable lead indicators NEM (mining stocks) and WMT (most sectors) is a good sign. Also, last week's (5 day period ending 5-2-07) huge rise in Fed Credit (+$16.947 Billion) is a major positive, because it fuels index fund program traders.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:40 PM
