Finetuning Using Elliott Wave Patterns, Gaps, NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, Thomson I Watch, Candlestick Charts
Elliott Wave patterns (12345 up down up down up upcycles and ABC down up down downcycles) on daily charts (Yahoo's a day behind, so one can't use it, Stockcharts.com isn't) get one a long way toward finetuning entry/exit points.
In late April KDKN.OB's huge short term Wave 5 did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, as did PUDC.OB's Wave 1 in March, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=kdkn.ob%2C+pudc.ob&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Most if not all of the other short term and other timeframe cycles probably followed Elliott Wave patterns.
When looking to buy or sell more finetuning is provided by the Elliott Wave patterns on the 5 day (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=kdkn.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) and if necessary 1 day Yahoo charts.
Also, the breakaway gap to the downside last Thursday for KDKN.OB was a sign that more downside was likely on Friday. If an upside gap doesn't get filled that's a sign to exit a long position/or don't buy yet, or, is a sign to remain/go long if a downside gap doesn't get filled.
Additional finetuning is provided by the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators (NEM for mining stocks and WMT for nearly all sectors), Thomson I Watch (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM), and Candlestick charts.
Looking at KDKN.OB and PUDC.OB's daily candlestick charts it's usually time to sell when the candle's bar turns dark, indicating a close below the open, or, if a large spike occurs on top of the candle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=kdkn.ob%2C+pudc.ob&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Using all of the tools available, a lot of finetuning is provided by Elliott Wave patterns (12345 up down up down up upcycles and ABC down up down downcycles) on the daily as well as 5 and 1 day charts, by gaps, by the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators (NEM for mining stocks and WMT for nearly all sectors), Thomson I Watch (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM), and Candlestick charts.
Also, flat action tends to occur near cycle highs/lows and cycle channels are especially useful if a stock is near the top or the bottom of a channel.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/rockets-6-month-ta-charts-and-fed.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
In late April KDKN.OB's huge short term Wave 5 did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, as did PUDC.OB's Wave 1 in March, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=kdkn.ob%2C+pudc.ob&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Most if not all of the other short term and other timeframe cycles probably followed Elliott Wave patterns.
When looking to buy or sell more finetuning is provided by the Elliott Wave patterns on the 5 day (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=kdkn.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) and if necessary 1 day Yahoo charts.
Also, the breakaway gap to the downside last Thursday for KDKN.OB was a sign that more downside was likely on Friday. If an upside gap doesn't get filled that's a sign to exit a long position/or don't buy yet, or, is a sign to remain/go long if a downside gap doesn't get filled.
Additional finetuning is provided by the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators (NEM for mining stocks and WMT for nearly all sectors), Thomson I Watch (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM), and Candlestick charts.
Looking at KDKN.OB and PUDC.OB's daily candlestick charts it's usually time to sell when the candle's bar turns dark, indicating a close below the open, or, if a large spike occurs on top of the candle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=kdkn.ob%2C+pudc.ob&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Using all of the tools available, a lot of finetuning is provided by Elliott Wave patterns (12345 up down up down up upcycles and ABC down up down downcycles) on the daily as well as 5 and 1 day charts, by gaps, by the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators (NEM for mining stocks and WMT for nearly all sectors), Thomson I Watch (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=NEM), and Candlestick charts.
Also, flat action tends to occur near cycle highs/lows and cycle channels are especially useful if a stock is near the top or the bottom of a channel.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/rockets-6-month-ta-charts-and-fed.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:17 PM
