Rockets Update, Lead Indicators, I Watch, Etc
AVNR appears to have finally put in a Wave 4 short term cycle low at 3.00 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==, versus appearing to have bottomed on 4-26 at 3.17, after completing a huge Elliott Wave down up down pattern from Wave 3's cycle high at 6.75. The very sharp plunge and inverse spike at the open is a sign that Wave 4 may have bottomed today, as is the "good strong action" (rose +4.67% from 3.00 to 3.14 by session's end) on strong volume. If AVNR fills today's upside gap at 3.21 tomorrow that'll be an indication that AVNR's Wave 4 has probably bottomed.
CEGE was probably in Wave B of a short term Wave 2 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 4.25-4.50 range early tomorrow, versus the monthly cycle low at 4.18 on 5-1.
LMC was in Wave B of a short term Wave 2 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 12.00-12.50 range in the next few days, versus the monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1.
NGEN entered a short term Wave 2 today, and, was in Wave B of Wave 2 at session's end today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ngen&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 1.60-1.70 range tomorrow, versus the monthly cycle low at 1.54 on 5-1.
SUPG is in Wave C of a short term Wave 2, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=supg&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 6.10-6.40 range early tomorrow, versus the monthly cycle low at 6.01 on Thursday 5-3.
BQI's severe Wave A down of Wave 2 bottomed early today, and, BQI ended the session in Wave B of a short term Wave 2, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bqi&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I may buy some BQI at 2.90-3.00 in the next day or two, versus the monthly cycle low at 2.85 on 5-1.
CALVF.OB might hit a monthly cycle low in the 10-14 cent range in the next few days, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.93% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-8, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.56% versus the XAU today/on 5-8 after being a bearish -2.98% versus the XAU last week.
Thomson I Watch was very bullish for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem) and WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt) today.
Based on the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator today some good buying opportunities may arise tomorrow. Also, the fact that Thomson I Watch was very bullish today for reliable lead indicators NEM (mining stocks) and WMT (most sectors) is a good sign. Also, last week's (5 day period ending 5-2-07) huge rise in Fed Credit (+$16.947 Billion) is a major positive, because it fuels index fund program traders.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
CEGE was probably in Wave B of a short term Wave 2 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 4.25-4.50 range early tomorrow, versus the monthly cycle low at 4.18 on 5-1.
LMC was in Wave B of a short term Wave 2 today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 12.00-12.50 range in the next few days, versus the monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1.
NGEN entered a short term Wave 2 today, and, was in Wave B of Wave 2 at session's end today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ngen&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 1.60-1.70 range tomorrow, versus the monthly cycle low at 1.54 on 5-1.
SUPG is in Wave C of a short term Wave 2, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=supg&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy in the 6.10-6.40 range early tomorrow, versus the monthly cycle low at 6.01 on Thursday 5-3.
BQI's severe Wave A down of Wave 2 bottomed early today, and, BQI ended the session in Wave B of a short term Wave 2, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=bqi&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I may buy some BQI at 2.90-3.00 in the next day or two, versus the monthly cycle low at 2.85 on 5-1.
CALVF.OB might hit a monthly cycle low in the 10-14 cent range in the next few days, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CALVF.OB&t=3m&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.93% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-8, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.56% versus the XAU today/on 5-8 after being a bearish -2.98% versus the XAU last week.
Thomson I Watch was very bullish for NEM (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem) and WMT (http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt) today.
Based on the very bearish WMT Lead Indicator today some good buying opportunities may arise tomorrow. Also, the fact that Thomson I Watch was very bullish today for reliable lead indicators NEM (mining stocks) and WMT (most sectors) is a good sign. Also, last week's (5 day period ending 5-2-07) huge rise in Fed Credit (+$16.947 Billion) is a major positive, because it fuels index fund program traders.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc. I didn't see anything with any of the stocks listed in this post that scared me away.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:26 PM
