NEM And WMT May Have Hit Important Cycle Lows Today
NEM and WMT may have hit important cycle lows today, which means that the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators may have turned short term bullish. NEM may have put in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low today at 38.85, or, at least a monthly/minor intermediate term cycle low. WMT is in the process of putting in a monthly cycle low.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.06% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-17, but, it turned bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.58% versus the XAU today/on 5-17, but, it turned bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Fed Credit fell a sharp -$5.658 Billion in the 5 day period ending 5-16-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. In the 5 day period ending 5-9-07 Fed Credit fell a very sharp -$13.418 Billion. Combined with a very bearish WMT Lead Indicator in recent weeks clearly indicates that caution is in order. The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.06% versus SPX on 5-17, -1.32% on 5-16, -0.33% on 5-15, +0.31% on 5-14, -0.90% on 5-11, +1.02% on 5-10, -0.67% on 5-9, -0.93% on 5-8, +0.44% on 5-7, -0.41% on 5-4, -0.26% on 5-3, -0.75% on 5-2, +0.59% on 5-1, -0.09% on 4-30, -0.73% on 4-27, -0.15% on 4-26, -0.76% on 4-25, -0.46% on 4-24, -1.44% on 4-23,
I looked to buy DNDN yesterday and today, but, never got the pullback I was looking for. Given the crappy market and bearish WMT Lead Indicator yesterday and today I was correctly cautious. Early yesterday I was waiting for a well defined Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern after the early spike move before buying, but, it never happened (there was one but it looked like Wave A to me) and the stock ran away from me, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll probably wait for Wave 4 down, but, I might day trade it tomorrow if there's early weakness.
DNDN's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 5.55 late Tuesday, versus a Wave 1 cycle high at 6.65 on Monday and a monthly cycle low at 4.95 on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. So, DNDN is in a Wave 3 short term upcycle.
AVNR just put in a bullish double bottom monthly cycle low at 2.36 on Monday and Tuesday, closing dramatically higher at 2.83 on Tuesday, +17.92%, on very strong volume of over 7.3 million shares, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c== and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR's short term Wave 1 peaked at 3.03 mid session Tuesday, then it did a short term Wave 2 down to 2.50 early today, and, ended the session in a short term Wave 3 up, exploding to 3.19 at session's end, with big volume coming in during the huge spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
BQI failed to do a healthy monthly Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, since Wave 4 took out Wave 2's cycle low at 3.00, with a cycle low so far at 2.92, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi. It's possible that BQI's latest short term upcycle was a big Wave 1 of a monthly upcycle, but, one should have a healthy skepticism when trading and only trade those with healthy reliable Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up monthly upcycles.
CALVF.OB is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (might have bottomed today at 0.126), and, should bottom in the 10-14 cent range as discussed in recent weeks, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?calvf.
CEGE is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (cycle low today at 3.82), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege.
LMC (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) put in a bullish triple bottom at 11.85 today, taking out what appeared to be a monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1 (third cycle low at 11.87 yesterday). I might buy some after it breaks it's downtrend line (see declining peaks at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lmc) and establishes a monthly cycle low. Also, waiting for reliable lead indicator NEM to establish an intermediate term cycle low probably makes sense, since LMC is a mining stock.
TMY's Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. Volume was a strong 2.45 million shares yesterday. I Watch has been bullish the past month, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=TMY&range=30&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=9&y=11. The high volume/volatility in recent days is a sign that the Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom. Extreme conditions tend to occur at/near cycle highs/lows.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.06% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-17, but, it turned bullish near session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.58% versus the XAU today/on 5-17, but, it turned bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Fed Credit fell a sharp -$5.658 Billion in the 5 day period ending 5-16-07, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. In the 5 day period ending 5-9-07 Fed Credit fell a very sharp -$13.418 Billion. Combined with a very bearish WMT Lead Indicator in recent weeks clearly indicates that caution is in order. The WMT Lead Indicator was -0.06% versus SPX on 5-17, -1.32% on 5-16, -0.33% on 5-15, +0.31% on 5-14, -0.90% on 5-11, +1.02% on 5-10, -0.67% on 5-9, -0.93% on 5-8, +0.44% on 5-7, -0.41% on 5-4, -0.26% on 5-3, -0.75% on 5-2, +0.59% on 5-1, -0.09% on 4-30, -0.73% on 4-27, -0.15% on 4-26, -0.76% on 4-25, -0.46% on 4-24, -1.44% on 4-23,
I looked to buy DNDN yesterday and today, but, never got the pullback I was looking for. Given the crappy market and bearish WMT Lead Indicator yesterday and today I was correctly cautious. Early yesterday I was waiting for a well defined Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern after the early spike move before buying, but, it never happened (there was one but it looked like Wave A to me) and the stock ran away from me, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll probably wait for Wave 4 down, but, I might day trade it tomorrow if there's early weakness.
DNDN's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 5.55 late Tuesday, versus a Wave 1 cycle high at 6.65 on Monday and a monthly cycle low at 4.95 on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. So, DNDN is in a Wave 3 short term upcycle.
AVNR just put in a bullish double bottom monthly cycle low at 2.36 on Monday and Tuesday, closing dramatically higher at 2.83 on Tuesday, +17.92%, on very strong volume of over 7.3 million shares, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c== and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR's short term Wave 1 peaked at 3.03 mid session Tuesday, then it did a short term Wave 2 down to 2.50 early today, and, ended the session in a short term Wave 3 up, exploding to 3.19 at session's end, with big volume coming in during the huge spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
BQI failed to do a healthy monthly Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, since Wave 4 took out Wave 2's cycle low at 3.00, with a cycle low so far at 2.92, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi. It's possible that BQI's latest short term upcycle was a big Wave 1 of a monthly upcycle, but, one should have a healthy skepticism when trading and only trade those with healthy reliable Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up monthly upcycles.
CALVF.OB is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (might have bottomed today at 0.126), and, should bottom in the 10-14 cent range as discussed in recent weeks, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?calvf.
CEGE is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (cycle low today at 3.82), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege.
LMC (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) put in a bullish triple bottom at 11.85 today, taking out what appeared to be a monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1 (third cycle low at 11.87 yesterday). I might buy some after it breaks it's downtrend line (see declining peaks at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lmc) and establishes a monthly cycle low. Also, waiting for reliable lead indicator NEM to establish an intermediate term cycle low probably makes sense, since LMC is a mining stock.
TMY's Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. Volume was a strong 2.45 million shares yesterday. I Watch has been bullish the past month, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=TMY&range=30&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=9&y=11. The high volume/volatility in recent days is a sign that the Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom. Extreme conditions tend to occur at/near cycle highs/lows.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:39 PM
