The WMT Lead Indicator Was A Very Bearish -1.32% Versus The S & P 500 Today/On 5-16
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.32% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-16, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.44% versus the XAU today/on 5-16, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Reliable lead indicator NEM broke through primary multi year support in the 40 area (see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) today, with a cycle low at 39.25. This means that NEM is still in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06, and, that a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market obviously didn't begin at 39.84 on 10-4-06. NEM's primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendline will be known once it establishes a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
Since NEM's multi year trendline prior to today was largely created during the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from October 2000 until January 31, 2006, it's not that surprising that the multi year trendline based on the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market trendline has broken down, and, it makes sense that it broke down.
AVNR just put in a bullish double bottom monthly cycle low at 2.36 on Monday and yesterday, closing dramatically higher at 2.83 yesterday, +17.92%, on very strong volume of over 7.3 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr.
AVNR's short term Wave 1 peaked at 3.03 mid session yesterday, then it did a short term Wave 2 down to 2.60 today, and, might have ended the session in a short term Wave 3 up.
BQI failed to do a healthy monthly Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, since Wave 4 took out Wave 2's cycle low at 3.00, with a cycle low so far at 2.95, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi.
CALVF.ob is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (might have bottomed today at 0.135), and, should bottom in the 10-14 cent range as discussed in recent weeks, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?calvf.
CEGE is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (might have bottomed yesterday and today at 3.86), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege.
DNDN's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 5.55 late yesterday as expected, versus a Wave 1 cycle high at 6.65 on Monday and a monthly cycle low at 4.95 on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. So DNDN is in a Wave 3 short term upcycle.
LMC's short term Wave 2 didn't bottom at 12.07 yesterday versus the monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It put in a bullish double bottom at 11.87 today however. I might buy some after it breaks it's Wave 2 downtrend line (see Wave 2 declining peaks at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lmc). Also, waiting for reliable lead indicator NEM to establish an intermediate term cycle low probably makes sense, since LMC is a mining stock.
TMY's Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. Volume was a strong 2.45 million shares today. I Watch has been bullish the past month, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=TMY&range=30&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=9&y=11. The high volume/volatility in recent days is a sign that the Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom. Extreme conditions tend to occur at/near cycle highs/lows.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Reliable lead indicator NEM broke through primary multi year support in the 40 area (see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) today, with a cycle low at 39.25. This means that NEM is still in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 1-31-06, and, that a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market obviously didn't begin at 39.84 on 10-4-06. NEM's primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendline will be known once it establishes a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low.
Since NEM's multi year trendline prior to today was largely created during the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from October 2000 until January 31, 2006, it's not that surprising that the multi year trendline based on the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market trendline has broken down, and, it makes sense that it broke down.
AVNR just put in a bullish double bottom monthly cycle low at 2.36 on Monday and yesterday, closing dramatically higher at 2.83 yesterday, +17.92%, on very strong volume of over 7.3 million shares, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr.
AVNR's short term Wave 1 peaked at 3.03 mid session yesterday, then it did a short term Wave 2 down to 2.60 today, and, might have ended the session in a short term Wave 3 up.
BQI failed to do a healthy monthly Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle, since Wave 4 took out Wave 2's cycle low at 3.00, with a cycle low so far at 2.95, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?bqi.
CALVF.ob is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (might have bottomed today at 0.135), and, should bottom in the 10-14 cent range as discussed in recent weeks, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?calvf.
CEGE is approaching a monthly cycle low/is in Wave C (might have bottomed yesterday and today at 3.86), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege.
DNDN's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 5.55 late yesterday as expected, versus a Wave 1 cycle high at 6.65 on Monday and a monthly cycle low at 4.95 on Friday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. So DNDN is in a Wave 3 short term upcycle.
LMC's short term Wave 2 didn't bottom at 12.07 yesterday versus the monthly cycle low at 11.86 on 5-1, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=lmc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. It put in a bullish double bottom at 11.87 today however. I might buy some after it breaks it's Wave 2 downtrend line (see Wave 2 declining peaks at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?lmc). Also, waiting for reliable lead indicator NEM to establish an intermediate term cycle low probably makes sense, since LMC is a mining stock.
TMY's Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy. Volume was a strong 2.45 million shares today. I Watch has been bullish the past month, see http://iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=TMY&range=30&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=9&y=11. The high volume/volatility in recent days is a sign that the Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 is trying to bottom. Extreme conditions tend to occur at/near cycle highs/lows.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:20 PM
