AVNR Exploded To 3.70, DNDN Analysis, And A New Rocket
AVNR put in a bullish double bottom monthly cycle low at 2.36 on Monday and Tuesday, closing dramatically higher at 2.83 on Tuesday, +17.92%, on very strong volume of over 7.3 million shares, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c== and http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr.
AVNR's short term Wave 1 peaked at 3.03 mid session Tuesday, then it did a short term Wave 2 down to 2.50 early yesterday, and, ended the session in a short term Wave 3 up, exploding to 3.19 at session's end and to 3.70 early today, with big volume coming in during the huge spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Waiting for a Wave 4 down usually makes sense, but, AVNR is in such a strong uptrend that it might not make sense in this case.
Now for why I've turned cautious on DNDN until it confirms the bullish case by doing a healthy short term Wave 3. Yesterday's cycle high at 6.57 failed to exceed Wave 1's at 6.65 on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which, combined with the recent huge bearish breakaway gap down from the teens (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn), means that 4.95 might not be a monthly cycle low.
DNDN did follow through to the downside for a few days after the huge bearish gap down, but, waiting for DNDN to confirm the bullish case by doing a healthy short term Wave 3 up, in which it peaks well above Wave 1's cycle high at 6.65, makes sense. This is why I didn't day trade it today. Also, I Watch data has been missing in recent days and the WMT Lead Indicator has been very bearish in recent weeks, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
DNDN's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 5.55 late Tuesday, versus a Wave 1 cycle high at 6.65 on Monday and a monthly cycle low at 4.95 on Friday 5-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. So, DNDN is/should be in a Wave 3 short term upcycle.
JRCC is a new rocket, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc. JRCC entered a Cyclical Bull Market in January 2007 after a Cyclical Bear Market from September 2005. JRCC is in the process of putting in both a monthly and probably also an important intermediate term cycle high (based on a quick Elliott Wave count), so, it'll probably be a few weeks or more before I look to trade it long.
TMY may have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May 2006) cycle low on Wednesday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy), but, it'll have to rise to 3+ (hit a 5% major buy signal) to indicate that a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low probably occurred.
I might start podcasting at TribalShout.com. I'll probably do a weekly Trade the Cycles Podcast if it works well. I'm looking to get into both the audio and video worlds, as so many others have done.
See yesterday's post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/nem-and-wmt-may-have-hit-important.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
AVNR's short term Wave 1 peaked at 3.03 mid session Tuesday, then it did a short term Wave 2 down to 2.50 early yesterday, and, ended the session in a short term Wave 3 up, exploding to 3.19 at session's end and to 3.70 early today, with big volume coming in during the huge spike move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AVNR&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Waiting for a Wave 4 down usually makes sense, but, AVNR is in such a strong uptrend that it might not make sense in this case.
Now for why I've turned cautious on DNDN until it confirms the bullish case by doing a healthy short term Wave 3. Yesterday's cycle high at 6.57 failed to exceed Wave 1's at 6.65 on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which, combined with the recent huge bearish breakaway gap down from the teens (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn), means that 4.95 might not be a monthly cycle low.
DNDN did follow through to the downside for a few days after the huge bearish gap down, but, waiting for DNDN to confirm the bullish case by doing a healthy short term Wave 3 up, in which it peaks well above Wave 1's cycle high at 6.65, makes sense. This is why I didn't day trade it today. Also, I Watch data has been missing in recent days and the WMT Lead Indicator has been very bearish in recent weeks, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
DNDN's short term Wave 2 down bottomed at 5.55 late Tuesday, versus a Wave 1 cycle high at 6.65 on Monday and a monthly cycle low at 4.95 on Friday 5-11, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. So, DNDN is/should be in a Wave 3 short term upcycle.
JRCC is a new rocket, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc. JRCC entered a Cyclical Bull Market in January 2007 after a Cyclical Bear Market from September 2005. JRCC is in the process of putting in both a monthly and probably also an important intermediate term cycle high (based on a quick Elliott Wave count), so, it'll probably be a few weeks or more before I look to trade it long.
TMY may have put in a Cyclical Bear Market (since May 2006) cycle low on Wednesday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmy), but, it'll have to rise to 3+ (hit a 5% major buy signal) to indicate that a Cyclical Bear Market cycle low probably occurred.
I might start podcasting at TribalShout.com. I'll probably do a weekly Trade the Cycles Podcast if it works well. I'm looking to get into both the audio and video worlds, as so many others have done.
See yesterday's post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/05/nem-and-wmt-may-have-hit-important.html.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:40 AM
