DNDN Put In A Wave 5 Of Wave 3 Of A Short Term Wave 3 Just After Today's Open
DNDN put in a Wave 5 of Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 just after today's open as expected/discussed in yesterday's last post, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Short term Wave 3s have a tendency to be large/long and can last over a week.
DNDN's Wave 1 short term upcycle peaked at 6.65 on 5-14 (monthly upcycle since bottoming at 4.95 on 5-11), then Wave 1 of Wave 3 peaked at 6.57 on Thursday 5-17, after which an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern (Wave 2 of Wave 3) completed just before 5-18's close, and, Wave 1 of Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 peaked just after yesterday's open followed by Wave 3 of Wave 3 peaking a few hours later, and, the final Wave 5 of Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 peaked just after today's open.
After Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 peaked just after today's open DNDN's Wave 4 of Wave 3 did an intraday Wave A down followed by a countertrend Wave B, and, in Wave C tomorrow it looks like DNDN will fill today's downside gap at 6.80, after which I might go long.
Yesterday I used Elliott Wave patterns to correctly determine that DNDN would probably take out yesterday's cycle high at 7.24 today, with a cycle high today at 7.30. Today I used Elliott Wave patterns to determine that DNDN will probably fill today's downside gap at 6.80 tomorrow, after which I may go long. Let's see what happens. Once one understands cycles Elliott Wave patterns are a truly great tool.
AGEN's short term Wave 3 peaked just after today's open, after which it experienced a huge % decline so far in Wave 4, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=agen&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 4 may have bottomed at 2.90 late in the session (monthly cycle low at 2.25 on 5-15). Yesterday's huge gap up/bullish breakaway gap on huge volume, plus today's Elliott Wave pattern, suggests that Wave 4 probably bottomed late today.
AVNR's short term Wave 4 since early yesterday probably still needs to do Wave C down tomorrow (perfect double bottom monthly cycle low at 2.36 on Monday 5-14/Tuesday 5-15), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
CEGE might have hit a monthly cycle low at 3.79 on Friday 5-18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Four likely new rockets are ENCY, FCEL, NRMX, and WWAT, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ency%2Cfcel%2Cnrmx%2Cwwat.ob&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Yahoo's daily charts are a day behind, so click on the 5 day chart to see today's action.
Now for HUI's Elliott Wave count, see HUI's chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI's major intermediate term upcycle that began on 10-4-06 peaked on 4-16-07 at 369.69 (The XAU peaked way back on 12-5-06). Wave A down bottomed at 333.37 on 5-1-07. Wave B peaked at 351.85 on 5-4-07. Wave A of Wave C bottomed at 319.56 on 5-17. Wave B of Wave C peaked at 334.43 yesterday/5-21, so, Wave C of Wave C is probably in effect for HUI, in which it should bottom well below 319.56.
That Elliott Wave count jives with the very bearish 5 day NEM (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) and WMT (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) Lead Indicators.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% versus SPX today and the NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the XAU today.
I'll be looking to reshort GLD tomorrow in a countertrend Wave B type move. I might go long DNDN and/or AGEN also.
I might do my first audio Blog today or tomorrow.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
DNDN's Wave 1 short term upcycle peaked at 6.65 on 5-14 (monthly upcycle since bottoming at 4.95 on 5-11), then Wave 1 of Wave 3 peaked at 6.57 on Thursday 5-17, after which an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern (Wave 2 of Wave 3) completed just before 5-18's close, and, Wave 1 of Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 peaked just after yesterday's open followed by Wave 3 of Wave 3 peaking a few hours later, and, the final Wave 5 of Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 peaked just after today's open.
After Wave 3 of a short term Wave 3 peaked just after today's open DNDN's Wave 4 of Wave 3 did an intraday Wave A down followed by a countertrend Wave B, and, in Wave C tomorrow it looks like DNDN will fill today's downside gap at 6.80, after which I might go long.
Yesterday I used Elliott Wave patterns to correctly determine that DNDN would probably take out yesterday's cycle high at 7.24 today, with a cycle high today at 7.30. Today I used Elliott Wave patterns to determine that DNDN will probably fill today's downside gap at 6.80 tomorrow, after which I may go long. Let's see what happens. Once one understands cycles Elliott Wave patterns are a truly great tool.
AGEN's short term Wave 3 peaked just after today's open, after which it experienced a huge % decline so far in Wave 4, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=agen&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 4 may have bottomed at 2.90 late in the session (monthly cycle low at 2.25 on 5-15). Yesterday's huge gap up/bullish breakaway gap on huge volume, plus today's Elliott Wave pattern, suggests that Wave 4 probably bottomed late today.
AVNR's short term Wave 4 since early yesterday probably still needs to do Wave C down tomorrow (perfect double bottom monthly cycle low at 2.36 on Monday 5-14/Tuesday 5-15), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
CEGE might have hit a monthly cycle low at 3.79 on Friday 5-18, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cege&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
Four likely new rockets are ENCY, FCEL, NRMX, and WWAT, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ency%2Cfcel%2Cnrmx%2Cwwat.ob&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=v&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Yahoo's daily charts are a day behind, so click on the 5 day chart to see today's action.
Now for HUI's Elliott Wave count, see HUI's chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui. HUI's major intermediate term upcycle that began on 10-4-06 peaked on 4-16-07 at 369.69 (The XAU peaked way back on 12-5-06). Wave A down bottomed at 333.37 on 5-1-07. Wave B peaked at 351.85 on 5-4-07. Wave A of Wave C bottomed at 319.56 on 5-17. Wave B of Wave C peaked at 334.43 yesterday/5-21, so, Wave C of Wave C is probably in effect for HUI, in which it should bottom well below 319.56.
That Elliott Wave count jives with the very bearish 5 day NEM (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) and WMT (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) Lead Indicators.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.11% versus SPX today and the NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.12% versus the XAU today.
I'll be looking to reshort GLD tomorrow in a countertrend Wave B type move. I might go long DNDN and/or AGEN also.
I might do my first audio Blog today or tomorrow.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:27 PM
