The NEM/WMT Lead Indicators Turned Bearish Again Late In The Session
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.33% versus the S & P 500 today/on 5-23, and, is very bearish recently, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. So, severe weakness may occur tomorrow for HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.04% versus the XAU today/on 5-23, and, is very bearish recently, see the 5 day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
AVNR entered a short term Wave 5 today after hitting 3.25 (monthly cycle low at 2.36), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. Note the inverse spike that tends to mark cycle lows, just as spikes tend to occur at cycle highs. Yesterday's Elliott Wave count correctly predicted that AVNR's Wave 4 probably hadn't bottomed yet.
DNDN filled it's downside gap at 6.80 as expected (Yesterday's Elliott Wave count correctly predicted. A monthly cycle low occurred at 4.95), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn.
AGEN (monthly cycle low at 2.25 on 5-15) probably entered a short term Wave 5 today after hitting 2.76, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen.
I didn't do anything today, but, will look to go long DNDN and/or AGEN tomorrow, possibly doing a day trade. I'll also be looking to short GLD.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.04% versus the XAU today/on 5-23, and, is very bearish recently, see the 5 day NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
AVNR entered a short term Wave 5 today after hitting 3.25 (monthly cycle low at 2.36), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. Note the inverse spike that tends to mark cycle lows, just as spikes tend to occur at cycle highs. Yesterday's Elliott Wave count correctly predicted that AVNR's Wave 4 probably hadn't bottomed yet.
DNDN filled it's downside gap at 6.80 as expected (Yesterday's Elliott Wave count correctly predicted. A monthly cycle low occurred at 4.95), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn.
AGEN (monthly cycle low at 2.25 on 5-15) probably entered a short term Wave 5 today after hitting 2.76, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen.
I didn't do anything today, but, will look to go long DNDN and/or AGEN tomorrow, possibly doing a day trade. I'll also be looking to short GLD.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:18 PM
