..............................AVNR Analysis
AVNR is disappointing so far today, and, is acting like it wants to fill yesterday's downside gap at 3.22, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
If 3.22 gets filled one has to assume that yesterday's cycle high at 4.00 was the final short term Wave 5 cycle high, but, if 3.22 doesn't get filled, then a bullish breakaway gap occurred and 4.00 is probably just a very short term Wave 1 cycle high of a short term Wave 5. This is why cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
AVNR's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 2.94 on Wednesday (monthly cycle low at 2.36), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr.
DNDN is probably a better short term trade than AVNR if yesterday's downside gap at 6.74 doesn't get filled (then a bullish breakaway gap occurred). DNDN's Wave 5 of a short term Wave 3 peaked well above Wave 3 of Wave 3's cycle high (at 7.30, monthly cycle low at 4.95) at 13.00 early yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn.
So, DNDN is in a short term Wave 4 down that may have bottomed at 7.90 today. A huge bullish likely breakaway gap occurred at yesterday's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I may go long DNDN today.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
If 3.22 gets filled one has to assume that yesterday's cycle high at 4.00 was the final short term Wave 5 cycle high, but, if 3.22 doesn't get filled, then a bullish breakaway gap occurred and 4.00 is probably just a very short term Wave 1 cycle high of a short term Wave 5. This is why cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
AVNR's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 2.94 on Wednesday (monthly cycle low at 2.36), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr.
DNDN is probably a better short term trade than AVNR if yesterday's downside gap at 6.74 doesn't get filled (then a bullish breakaway gap occurred). DNDN's Wave 5 of a short term Wave 3 peaked well above Wave 3 of Wave 3's cycle high (at 7.30, monthly cycle low at 4.95) at 13.00 early yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn.
So, DNDN is in a short term Wave 4 down that may have bottomed at 7.90 today. A huge bullish likely breakaway gap occurred at yesterday's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I may go long DNDN today.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:10 AM
