AVNR And DNDN Confirmed Yesterday's Cycle Lows
AVNR and DNDN confirmed yesterday's cycle lows, with AVNR's at 3.26 being a monthly cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr), and, with DNDN's at 7.55 being a Wave 4 short term cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn), that's similar to a monthly cycle low, because Wave 3's cycle high was at 13.00.
ENCY has shot it's way into the rockets club (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency) on very strong volume, but, one should wait for an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle before trading it long.
AVNR has a bullish breakaway gap at 3.22 from 5-31 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), and, DNDN has a bullish breakaway gap at 6.74 from 5-31 and a bullish breakaway gap at today's open at 8.20, that might but probably won't get filled tomorrow, because it's probably a bullish breakaway gap (it already is on an intraday basis), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
With DNDN today I was waiting to see if it would fill today's downside gap created at the open at 8.20. Once the huge spike to 8.88 occurred it was obvious that 8.20 wasn't going to get filled today. I'll be looking to go long tomorrow, but, the possibility that 8.20 might get filled, especially given today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -0.81% versus the S & P 500 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) that got more bearish toward session's end, can't be ruled out. The
NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.85% versus the XAU today/on 6-5.
In this monthly upcycle AVNR should peak well above the most recent monthly cycle high that occurred at 4.00 on 5-31.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
Waiting for a buy signal (strong Wave 1 type move) and buying a pullback (Wave 2 type move) is probably the best strategy. DNDN's large inverse spike that occurred at 7.55 early yesterday was a sign that DNDN's short term Wave 4 had probably bottomed at 7.55, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
MDII is in the process of putting in an intermediate term cycle low (is in Wave C of Wave C), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. One should wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle, then buy during a short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, if you're looking to buy.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 5 on Friday 5-25 after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. AGEN broke out of it's short term Wave 5 triangle.
CEGE is in a short term Wave 4, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege. A monthly cycle low occurred at 3.79.
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 on Wednesday, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Wave 5 obviously appears to be peaking.
QTWW put in a monthly cycle low at 1.17, and, is in Wave 4 of a short term Wave 3, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. QTWW made a big bullish breakaway gap from 1.46 on Thursday 5-31 on strong volume. I might go long some QTWW once/if it's clear that 1.46 won't get filled.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
ENCY has shot it's way into the rockets club (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ency) on very strong volume, but, one should wait for an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle before trading it long.
AVNR has a bullish breakaway gap at 3.22 from 5-31 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=avnr&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), and, DNDN has a bullish breakaway gap at 6.74 from 5-31 and a bullish breakaway gap at today's open at 8.20, that might but probably won't get filled tomorrow, because it's probably a bullish breakaway gap (it already is on an intraday basis), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=dndn&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
With DNDN today I was waiting to see if it would fill today's downside gap created at the open at 8.20. Once the huge spike to 8.88 occurred it was obvious that 8.20 wasn't going to get filled today. I'll be looking to go long tomorrow, but, the possibility that 8.20 might get filled, especially given today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -0.81% versus the S & P 500 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) that got more bearish toward session's end, can't be ruled out. The
NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.85% versus the XAU today/on 6-5.
In this monthly upcycle AVNR should peak well above the most recent monthly cycle high that occurred at 4.00 on 5-31.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
Waiting for a buy signal (strong Wave 1 type move) and buying a pullback (Wave 2 type move) is probably the best strategy. DNDN's large inverse spike that occurred at 7.55 early yesterday was a sign that DNDN's short term Wave 4 had probably bottomed at 7.55, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=DNDN&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
MDII is in the process of putting in an intermediate term cycle low (is in Wave C of Wave C), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mdii. One should wait for a short term Wave 1 upcycle, then buy during a short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle, if you're looking to buy.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 5 on Friday 5-25 after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. AGEN broke out of it's short term Wave 5 triangle.
CEGE is in a short term Wave 4, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cege. A monthly cycle low occurred at 3.79.
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 on Wednesday, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Wave 5 obviously appears to be peaking.
QTWW put in a monthly cycle low at 1.17, and, is in Wave 4 of a short term Wave 3, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. QTWW made a big bullish breakaway gap from 1.46 on Thursday 5-31 on strong volume. I might go long some QTWW once/if it's clear that 1.46 won't get filled.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:22 PM
