The WMT/NEM Lead Indicators Are Very Bearish
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.53% versus the S & P 500 today, and, was a very bearish -0.92% versus the S & P 500 yesterday, see the 5 day WMT Lead Indicator chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
The S & P 500 (SPX) probably completed a 2+ session Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle at the next link.
SPX is probably in a short term Wave 4 down of the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the intermediate term upcycle since mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.19% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bearish -1.02% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Today's rockets action was as follows:
GNBT is probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 down downcycle(http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 1 peaked on Wednesday at 2.14. Yesterday's early spike move, that failed to do a third/Wave 5 upcycle, was a sign that it was probably Wave B of the short term Wave 2 down. Once it bottoms at 1.60ish (Wave A of Wave 2 was 1.76 early yesterday) I'll probably jump in. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT is probably the best trading rocket right now.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
A new rocket, EPCT, hit a monthly and intermediate term cycle low at 2.14 yesterday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?epct), and, put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.82 today (note the bearish large spike on today's candle), and, ended the session in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=epct&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. EPCT made a huge potential bullish breakaway gap at today's open from 2.18 to 2.70. I'll be looking to buy EPCT early next week, if the downside gap at 2.18 is clearly a bullish breakaway gap.
Another new rocket, CVTX, hit a monthly cycle low at 9.75 and may have entered a short term Wave 2 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cvtx.
AVNR's (Wave C of it's) monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume yesterday, which was a monthly cycle buy signal.
DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN put in a potential short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.38 on Wednesday versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00 and a monthly cycle low at 4.95. Watch yesterday's downside gap and potential bullish breakaway gap at 7.51, and, there's a downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31. The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday's open as expected on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy a pullback early next week. ACAD is in Wave 4 of a short term Wave 3 after putting in a monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5.
QTWW filled it's downside gap at 1.46 on Tuesday (monthly cycle low at 1.17), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. QTWW's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 1.434 on Wednesday. I'll be looking to buy a pullback early next week, since QTWW clearly broke it's Wave 4 downtrend line and hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal.
RVNG.OB's short term Wave 4 probably bottomed at 1.10 on Wednesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. There's a bullish double bottom, with each cycle low having a large bullish inverse spike, and, today's candle is white/bullish, indicating a close above the open. There's a downside gap at 1.00 (bullish breakaway gap) that will probably get filled later on. I'll be looking to buy once RVNG clearly breaks it's Wave 4 downtrend line.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The bearish large spike today is a likely short term Wave 1 cycle high, and, the candle is black/bearish, indicating a close below the open. I'll look to buy in the Wave 2 downcycle.
AGEN is/should be in Wave 5 of a short term Wave 5, and, broke out of it's short term triangle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. But, it isn't acting well enough (I don't like the chart) for me to look to go long.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The S & P 500 (SPX) probably completed a 2+ session Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Note the bearish large spike on today's candle at the next link.
SPX is probably in a short term Wave 4 down of the third/final Wave 5 upcycle of the intermediate term upcycle since mid March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.19% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bearish -1.02% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Today's rockets action was as follows:
GNBT is probably in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 down downcycle(http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 1 peaked on Wednesday at 2.14. Yesterday's early spike move, that failed to do a third/Wave 5 upcycle, was a sign that it was probably Wave B of the short term Wave 2 down. Once it bottoms at 1.60ish (Wave A of Wave 2 was 1.76 early yesterday) I'll probably jump in. GNBT entered a Cyclical Bull Market at 0.51 in March 2005. GNBT is probably the best trading rocket right now.
GNBT's a new biotech rocket with probably more than enough average volume to be reasonably liquid, that entered an important intermediate term and monthly upcycle at 1.26 on Monday 6-11, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gnbt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. GNBT's short term Wave 1 was up "big" on very strong volume, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gnbt.
A new rocket, EPCT, hit a monthly and intermediate term cycle low at 2.14 yesterday (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?epct), and, put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high at 2.82 today (note the bearish large spike on today's candle), and, ended the session in Wave C of a short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=epct&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. EPCT made a huge potential bullish breakaway gap at today's open from 2.18 to 2.70. I'll be looking to buy EPCT early next week, if the downside gap at 2.18 is clearly a bullish breakaway gap.
Another new rocket, CVTX, hit a monthly cycle low at 9.75 and may have entered a short term Wave 2 today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?cvtx.
AVNR's (Wave C of it's) monthly downcycle (since monthly cycle peaked at 4.00) probably hit a monthly cycle low at 3.04 yesterday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr. AVNR rallied dramatically to a session cycle high at 3.35 on strong volume yesterday, which was a monthly cycle buy signal.
DNDN needs to establish a short term Wave 4 cycle low before I look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN put in a potential short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.38 on Wednesday versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00 and a monthly cycle low at 4.95. Watch yesterday's downside gap and potential bullish breakaway gap at 7.51, and, there's a downside gap at 6.74 created on 5-31. The bearish huge decline after the giant Wave 3 spike move to 13.00 indicated that a long short term Wave 4 was a likely scenario. The strategy of waiting for strength (short term buy signal) then looking to buy a pullback has served me well and kept me out of DNDN in the long Wave 4.
ACAD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad) filled it's downside gap at 13.96 created at Monday's open as expected on Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. I'll be looking to buy a pullback early next week. ACAD is in Wave 4 of a short term Wave 3 after putting in a monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday 6-6 from 12.43) at 12.20 on Tuesday 6-5.
QTWW filled it's downside gap at 1.46 on Tuesday (monthly cycle low at 1.17), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qtww. QTWW's short term Wave 4 bottomed at 1.434 on Wednesday. I'll be looking to buy a pullback early next week, since QTWW clearly broke it's Wave 4 downtrend line and hit a short term Wave 5 buy signal.
RVNG.OB's short term Wave 4 probably bottomed at 1.10 on Wednesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. There's a bullish double bottom, with each cycle low having a large bullish inverse spike, and, today's candle is white/bullish, indicating a close above the open. There's a downside gap at 1.00 (bullish breakaway gap) that will probably get filled later on. I'll be looking to buy once RVNG clearly breaks it's Wave 4 downtrend line.
FCEL's monthly downcycle bottomed at 7.11 on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. The bearish large spike today is a likely short term Wave 1 cycle high, and, the candle is black/bearish, indicating a close below the open. I'll look to buy in the Wave 2 downcycle.
AGEN is/should be in Wave 5 of a short term Wave 5, and, broke out of it's short term triangle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. But, it isn't acting well enough (I don't like the chart) for me to look to go long.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:15 PM
