The WMT And NEM Lead Indicators Are Very Bearish
The WMT and NEM Lead Indicators are very bearish. The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.64% versus the S & P 500 today after being -0.50% on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.32% versus the XAU today after being -0.51% on Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
WMT came close to filling it's downside gap at 49.47 today, with a session cycle low at 49.55, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. 49.47 will probably get filled tomorrow, given today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -0.64% versus the S & P 500.
To synopsize today's action, AVNR may have hit a monthly cycle low at 3.20 today versus last Monday's cycle low at 3.26 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr), that, not surprisingly, turned out to be a Wave A cycle low of a monthly downcycle. The dramatic decline (> -14%, Wave C type action), from the early cycle high at 3.75 on Friday to today's session cycle low at 3.20, indicates that an important monthly cycle low may have occurred at 3.20.
DNDN still hasn't shown enough strength in this likely short term Wave 5 for me to look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN hit a monthly cycle low at 4.95, a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00, and a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.55.
A rare bright spot in the precious metals Bear Market is RVNG.OB, Raven Gold, whose big Wave 3 short term upcycle may have peaked at 1.73 today (note the large spike), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. If RVNG.OB's volume remains high enough (if it averages 500,000+ shares/day) it'll be a tradeable rocket.
ACAD is in a short term Wave 3 after putting in a monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday from 12.43) at 12.20 last Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad. After ACAD does an intraday Wave C I might go long tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 5 on Friday 5-25 after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. AGEN broke out of it's short term Wave 5 triangle and is doing reasonably well, it's in Wave 5 up of the short term Wave 5.
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 on Wednesday 5-30, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Wave 5 obviously appears to have peaked.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
WMT came close to filling it's downside gap at 49.47 today, with a session cycle low at 49.55, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. 49.47 will probably get filled tomorrow, given today's very bearish WMT Lead Indicator at -0.64% versus the S & P 500.
To synopsize today's action, AVNR may have hit a monthly cycle low at 3.20 today versus last Monday's cycle low at 3.26 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?avnr), that, not surprisingly, turned out to be a Wave A cycle low of a monthly downcycle. The dramatic decline (> -14%, Wave C type action), from the early cycle high at 3.75 on Friday to today's session cycle low at 3.20, indicates that an important monthly cycle low may have occurred at 3.20.
DNDN still hasn't shown enough strength in this likely short term Wave 5 for me to look to go long, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?dndn. DNDN hit a monthly cycle low at 4.95, a short term Wave 3 cycle high at 13.00, and a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 7.55.
A rare bright spot in the precious metals Bear Market is RVNG.OB, Raven Gold, whose big Wave 3 short term upcycle may have peaked at 1.73 today (note the large spike), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?rvng. If RVNG.OB's volume remains high enough (if it averages 500,000+ shares/day) it'll be a tradeable rocket.
ACAD is in a short term Wave 3 after putting in a monthly cycle low (made a huge bullish breakaway gap on Wednesday from 12.43) at 12.20 last Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?acad. After ACAD does an intraday Wave C I might go long tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=acad&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
AGEN entered a short term Wave 5 on Friday 5-25 after putting in a cycle low at 2.65 (monthly cycle low at 2.25), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?agen. AGEN broke out of it's short term Wave 5 triangle and is doing reasonably well, it's in Wave 5 up of the short term Wave 5.
FCEL put in a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 6.65 on Wednesday 5-30, versus a Wave 3 cycle high at 7.25 and monthly cycle low at 6.30, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?fcel. Wave 5 obviously appears to have peaked.
The due diligence that I do (as a minimum) on trading stocks is to look at insider trading activity, the balance sheet, mutual fund/institutional ownership, scan the news/maybe read some, check I Watch, make sure that they're probably in a Cyclical Bull Market (should have completed a 9-18+ month Cyclical Bear Market in the past year or two), etc.
There are times when one should wait for strength after hitting a price target (hit a buy signal), such as if there's a well established downtrend line one should wait for it to clearly be broken (might wait for a Wave 1 short term upcycle and buy late in a Wave 2 down or early in a Wave 3 up, in the flat early part of the cycle), and, there are times to consider trying to catch the bottom (when I Watch and the WMT Lead Indicator are clearly bullish and/or a stock bounces at a well established uptrend line, then look to buy a pullback).
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
I'll be using cycle trendlines/channels, Elliott Wave patterns, gaps, the WMT Lead Indicator, I Watch, etc. to time the rockets. If it works the way I think it will it should be a lot of fun. We'll see.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:12 PM
